bayesRatings

Braves at Diamondbacks

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 6:15 PM CT · Chase Field · Final ATL 1 – ARI 2
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL010000000141
ARI02000000241
Team box
ATL·ARI
4
hits
4
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
7
strikeouts
9
96
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gabriel MorenoARI2-3100
Dominic SmithATL1-3001
Nolan ArenadoARI1-3100
Jose FernandezARI1-3000
Matt OlsonATL1-3000
Mauricio DubonATL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce Elder (L)ATL7.04018
Michael Soroka (W)ARI5.04133
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 1 · ATL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 50%, ARI 50% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 5.2 – 4.7 ARI
Expected total
9.8
BravesThe matchupDiamondbacks
+102Our fair odds−102
5.2Expected runs4.7
+0.07Power rating−0.00
5.4Runs / game3.4
1.8Allowed / game5.8
9.0Hits / game6.5
1.50Home runs / game1.00
3.9Walks drawn / game2.8
6−2Season record3−5
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+10250%+10149.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10250%−12154.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.5
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.5our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.5 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byARI wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 18 Kstarted
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 2.61 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·ARI
Apr 3 at ARI
last game
Apr 3 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
ATL·ARI
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
5.4
runs / game
3.4
1.8
runs allowed / game
5.8
6−2
season record
3−5
4−2
home record
3−2
2−0
away record
0−3
W3
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
3−7
9.0
hits / game
6.5
1.50
home runs / game
1.00
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.8
6.8
batter strikeouts / game
6.9
7.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.38
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

ATL · ARI · 10 days
Atlanta BravesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Apr 3at ARIATL 2 − 0
Apr 2at ARIATL 17 − 2
Jun 5, 2025at ATLARI 11 − 10
Jun 4, 2025at ATLARI 2 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at ATLARI 8 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 4
Apr 26, 2025at ARIATL 8 − 7
Apr 25, 2025at ARIATL 8 − 2
Jul 11, 2024at ARIARI 1 − 0
Jul 10, 2024at ARIARI 7 − 5

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Apr 3at ARI2 − 0W
Apr 2at ARI17 − 2W
Apr 1vs ATH5 − 1W
Mar 31vs ATH2 − 5L
Mar 30vs ATH4 − 0W
Mar 29vs KC1 − 4L
Mar 28vs KC6 − 2W
Mar 27vs KC6 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs PIT4 − 1W
Sep 27, 2025vs PIT1 − 3L

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 3vs ATL0 − 2L
Apr 2vs ATL2 − 17L
Apr 1vs DET1 − 0W
Mar 31vs DET7 − 5W
Mar 30vs DET9 − 6W
Mar 28at LAD2 − 3L
Mar 27at LAD4 − 5L
Mar 26at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 28, 2025at SD4 − 12L
Sep 27, 2025at SD1 − 5L