bayesRatings

Braves at Angels

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final ATL 2 – LAA 6
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL100000001250
LAA10032000650
Team box
ATL·LAA
5
hits
5
2
home runs
2
1
walks
2
11
strikeouts
10
113
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jo AdellLAA2-4112
Drake BaldwinATL2-4111
Mauricio DubonATL1-3111
Zach NetoLAA1-4111
Bryce TeodosioLAA1-3001
Matt OlsonATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Sale (L)ATL4.05627
Jose Soriano (W)LAA8.031010
Jordan Romano (S)LAA0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +5
ATL +5
123456789
largest lead: LAA 5 · ATL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 54%, LAA 46% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
ATL by 1.2
Expected score
ATL 5.1 – 3.9 LAA
Expected total
9.0
BravesThe matchupAngels
−116Our fair odds+116
5.1Expected runs3.9
+0.06Power rating−0.18
4.9Runs / game4.1
2.2Allowed / game4.5
8.7Hits / game6.6
1.30Home runs / game1.10
3.7Walks drawn / game4.2
6−4Season record5−5
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.8%46.2%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11654%−18364.6%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11646%+15239.6%———
SpreadATL by 1.2
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.2our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.2 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byLAA wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more47%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more36%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 15 Kstarted
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 2.02 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·LAA
Apr 5 at ARI
last game
Apr 5 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
ATL·LAA
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
4.9
runs / game
4.1
2.2
runs allowed / game
4.5
6−4
season record
5−5
4−2
home record
2−1
2−2
away record
3−4
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
6.6
1.30
home runs / game
1.10
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.2
6.7
batter strikeouts / game
10.8
7.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.40
errors / game
0.90

Rating Trend

ATL · LAA · 12 days
Atlanta BravesLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Jul 3, 2025at ATLLAA 5 − 1
Jul 2, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 3
Jul 1, 2025at ATLLAA 4 − 0
Aug 18, 2024at LAAATL 3 − 1
Aug 17, 2024at LAAATL 11 − 3
Aug 16, 2024at LAALAA 3 − 2
Aug 2, 2023at ATLATL 12 − 5
Aug 1, 2023at ATLATL 5 − 1
Jul 31, 2023at ATLLAA 4 − 1
Jul 24, 2022at ATLLAA 9 − 1

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 5at ARI5 − 6L
Apr 4at ARI1 − 2L
Apr 3at ARI2 − 0W
Apr 2at ARI17 − 2W
Apr 1vs ATH5 − 1W
Mar 31vs ATH2 − 5L
Mar 30vs ATH4 − 0W
Mar 29vs KC1 − 4L
Mar 28vs KC6 − 2W
Mar 27vs KC6 − 0W

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 5vs SEA8 − 7W
Apr 4vs SEA1 − 0W
Apr 3vs SEA1 − 3L
Apr 1at CHC2 − 6L
Mar 31at CHC2 − 0W
Mar 30at CHC2 − 7L
Mar 29at HOU7 − 9L
Mar 28at HOU9 − 11L
Mar 27at HOU6 − 2W
Mar 26at HOU3 − 0W