bayesRatings

Guardians at Braves

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final CLE 6 – ATL 0
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE100001013670
ATL000000000051
Team box
CLE·ATL
7
hits
5
1
home runs
0
8
walks
3
4
strikeouts
9
127
pitches thrown
185
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose RamirezCLE2-4211
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-2102
Angel MartinezCLE2-5200
Chase DeLauterCLE1-4001
Matt OlsonATL1-3000
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Parker Messick (W)CLE6.24025
Martin Perez (L)ATL5.02132

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +6
CLE +6
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · CLE 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 48%, ATL 52% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.4 – 3.8 CLE
Expected total
8.2
GuardiansThe matchupBraves
+110Our fair odds−110
3.8Expected runs4.4
+0.07Power rating+0.08
3.6Runs / game5.5
3.9Allowed / game2.6
7.0Hits / game9.1
0.93Home runs / game1.43
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
8−6Season record9−5
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · ATL chance
Our model fair47.5%52.5%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+11048%+10149.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−11052%−12154.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
CLECleveland Guardians+0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 18 Kstarted
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.87 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·ATL
Apr 10 at ATL
last game
Apr 10 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
CLE·ATL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
3.6
runs / game
5.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
2.6
8−6
season record
9−5
4−2
home record
5−2
4−4
away record
4−3
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.0
hits / game
9.1
0.93
home runs / game
1.43
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
10.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.29
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

CLE · ATL · 17 days
Cleveland GuardiansAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 8−2
Apr 10at ATLATL 11 − 5
Aug 17, 2025at CLEATL 5 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at CLEATL 10 − 1
Aug 15, 2025at CLEATL 2 − 0
Apr 28, 2024at ATLATL 4 − 3
Apr 27, 2024at ATLCLE 4 − 2
Apr 26, 2024at ATLATL 6 − 2
Jul 5, 2023at CLEATL 8 − 1
Jul 4, 2023at CLECLE 6 − 5
Jul 3, 2023at CLEATL 4 − 2

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 10at ATL5 − 11L
Apr 8vs KC10 − 2W
Apr 7vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 6vs KC2 − 4L
Apr 5vs CHC6 − 5W
Apr 5vs CHC0 − 1L
Apr 3vs CHC4 − 1W
Apr 1at LAD4 − 1W
Mar 31at LAD1 − 4L
Mar 30at LAD4 − 2W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 10vs CLE11 − 5W
Apr 8at LAA8 − 2W
Apr 7at LAA7 − 2W
Apr 6at LAA2 − 6L
Apr 5at ARI5 − 6L
Apr 4at ARI1 − 2L
Apr 3at ARI2 − 0W
Apr 2at ARI17 − 2W
Apr 1vs ATH5 − 1W
Mar 31vs ATH2 − 5L