bayesRatings

Guardians at Braves

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final CLE 5 – ATL 11
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000110030581
ATL0010062211151
Team box
CLE·ATL
8
hits
15
1
home runs
3
5
walks
3
5
strikeouts
5
157
pitches thrown
147
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2-5112
Michael Harris IIATL2-4112
Dominic SmithATL3-4202
Matt OlsonATL1-4212
Angel MartinezCLE2-4102
Kyle ManzardoCLE1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Slade Cecconi (L)CLE5.17413
Bryce ElderATL4.24233
Tyler Kinley (W)ATL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +7
CLE +7
123456789
largest lead: ATL 7 · CLE 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 48%, ATL 52% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 4.2 – 3.8 CLE
Expected total
8.0
GuardiansThe matchupBraves
+107Our fair odds−107
3.8Expected runs4.2
+0.09Power rating+0.06
3.5Runs / game5.1
3.3Allowed / game2.5
6.9Hits / game8.6
0.92Home runs / game1.31
3.5Walks drawn / game3.6
8−5Season record8−5
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · ATL chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10748%+11945.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−10752%−14258.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.5
CLECleveland Guardians+0.5our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.5 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more40%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more29%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 14 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·ATL
Apr 8 vs KC
last game
Apr 8 at LAA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
CLE·ATL
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
3.5
runs / game
5.1
3.3
runs allowed / game
2.5
8−5
season record
8−5
4−2
home record
4−2
4−3
away record
4−3
W2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
6.9
hits / game
8.6
0.92
home runs / game
1.31
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
10.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.23
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CLE · ATL · 16 days
Cleveland GuardiansAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 7−2
Aug 17, 2025at CLEATL 5 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at CLEATL 10 − 1
Aug 15, 2025at CLEATL 2 − 0
Apr 28, 2024at ATLATL 4 − 3
Apr 27, 2024at ATLCLE 4 − 2
Apr 26, 2024at ATLATL 6 − 2
Jul 5, 2023at CLEATL 8 − 1
Jul 4, 2023at CLECLE 6 − 5
Jul 3, 2023at CLEATL 4 − 2

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 8vs KC10 − 2W
Apr 7vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 6vs KC2 − 4L
Apr 5vs CHC6 − 5W
Apr 5vs CHC0 − 1L
Apr 3vs CHC4 − 1W
Apr 1at LAD4 − 1W
Mar 31at LAD1 − 4L
Mar 30at LAD4 − 2W
Mar 29at SEA0 − 8L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 8at LAA8 − 2W
Apr 7at LAA7 − 2W
Apr 6at LAA2 − 6L
Apr 5at ARI5 − 6L
Apr 4at ARI1 − 2L
Apr 3at ARI2 − 0W
Apr 2at ARI17 − 2W
Apr 1vs ATH5 − 1W
Mar 31vs ATH2 − 5L
Mar 30vs ATH4 − 0W