bayesRatings

Guardians at Cardinals

MLB · Monday, Apr 13 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CLE 9 – STL 3
← MLB / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE1003020309110
STL100001010391
Team box
CLE·STL
11
hits
9
2
home runs
1
5
walks
4
6
strikeouts
6
165
pitches thrown
176
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brayan RocchioCLE2-3212
Angel MartinezCLE2-5111
Jordan WalkerSTL2-5211
Steven KwanCLE2-5002
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-5002
Alec BurlesonSTL2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gavin Williams (W)CLE5.05224
Matthew Liberatore (L)STL5.06432

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +7
CLE +7
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · CLE 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 51%, STL 49% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.3 – 4.1 STL
Expected total
8.4
GuardiansThe matchupCardinals
−103Our fair odds+103
4.3Expected runs4.1
+0.06Power rating−0.05
3.6Runs / game4.4
4.2Allowed / game5.3
7.1Hits / game7.3
0.94Home runs / game1.07
3.7Walks drawn / game4.3
9−7Season record8−7
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · STL chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10351%−11653.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10349%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.2our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 13%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins bySTL wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more27%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 25 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·STL
Apr 12 at ATL
last game
Apr 12 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
CLE·STL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.6
runs / game
4.4
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.3
9−7
season record
8−7
4−2
home record
5−4
5−5
away record
3−3
L1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.1
hits / game
7.3
0.94
home runs / game
1.07
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
10.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.1
0.31
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

CLE · STL · 19 days
Cleveland GuardiansSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 6−4
Jun 29, 2025at CLESTL 7 − 0
Jun 28, 2025at CLESTL 9 − 6
Jun 27, 2025at CLESTL 5 − 0
Sep 22, 2024at STLSTL 2 − 1
Sep 21, 2024at STLSTL 6 − 5
Sep 20, 2024at STLCLE 5 − 1
May 28, 2023at CLECLE 4 − 3
May 27, 2023at CLESTL 2 − 1
May 26, 2023at CLECLE 4 − 3
Jul 28, 2021at CLECLE 7 − 2

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 12at ATL1 − 13L
Apr 11at ATL6 − 0W
Apr 10at ATL5 − 11L
Apr 8vs KC10 − 2W
Apr 7vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 6vs KC2 − 4L
Apr 5vs CHC6 − 5W
Apr 5vs CHC0 − 1L
Apr 3vs CHC4 − 1W
Apr 1at LAD4 − 1W

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 12vs BOS3 − 9L
Apr 11vs BOS1 − 7L
Apr 10vs BOS3 − 2W
Apr 8at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 7at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 6at WSH6 − 9L
Apr 5at DET5 − 3W
Apr 4at DET6 − 11L
Apr 3at DET0 − 4L
Apr 1vs NYM2 − 1W