bayesRatings

Giants at Orioles

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 12:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final SF 2 – BAL 6
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000010001271
BAL200021106110
Team box
SF·BAL
7
hits
11
1
home runs
1
0
walks
5
7
strikeouts
7
170
pitches thrown
128
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Casey SchmittSF3-4211
Samuel BasalloBAL1-3112
Pete AlonsoBAL2-4102
Taylor WardBAL2-4200
Leody TaverasBAL2-4100
Colton CowserBAL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Adrian Houser (L)SF4.25423
Cade Povich (W)BAL6.25105

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +5
SF +5
123456789
largest lead: BAL 5 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 48%, BAL 52% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.3 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
8.5
GiantsThe matchupOrioles
+107Our fair odds−107
4.3Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating−0.05
3.3Runs / game3.9
4.4Allowed / game4.1
8.1Hits / game8.0
0.47Home runs / game0.79
2.2Walks drawn / game4.0
6−9Season record7−7
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · BAL chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+10748%+10149.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10752%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.1our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins byBAL wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more37%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more27%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFAdrian Houser SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 12 Kstarted
BALCade Povich SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·BAL
Apr 11 at BAL
last game
Apr 11 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
SF·BAL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.3
runs / game
3.9
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
6−9
season record
7−7
3−7
home record
4−4
3−2
away record
3−3
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.0
0.47
home runs / game
0.79
2.2
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.60
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

SF · BAL · 18 days
San Francisco GiantsBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
Apr 11at BALBAL 6 − 2
Apr 10at BALSF 6 − 3
Aug 31, 2025at SFSF 13 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at SFBAL 11 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at SFSF 15 − 8
Sep 19, 2024at BALBAL 5 − 3
Sep 18, 2024at BALSF 5 − 3
Sep 17, 2024at BALSF 10 − 0
Jun 4, 2023at SFBAL 8 − 3
Jun 3, 2023at SFSF 4 − 0

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 11at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 10at BAL6 − 3W
Apr 8vs PHI5 − 0W
Apr 7vs PHI6 − 0W
Apr 6vs PHI4 − 6L
Apr 5vs NYM2 − 5L
Apr 4vs NYM0 − 9L
Apr 3vs NYM3 − 10L
Apr 2vs NYM7 − 2W
Apr 1at SD1 − 7L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 11vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 10vs SF3 − 6L
Apr 8at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 7at CHW4 − 2W
Apr 6at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 5at PIT2 − 8L
Apr 4at PIT2 − 3L
Apr 3at PIT4 − 5L
Apr 1vs TEX8 − 3W
Mar 31vs TEX5 − 8L