bayesRatings

Phillies at Giants

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 2:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final PHI 0 – SF 5
← MLB / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000000000041
SF00000302590
Team box
PHI·SF
4
hits
9
0
home runs
1
5
walks
1
10
strikeouts
6
124
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael DeversSF2-4114
Willy AdamesSF2-4200
Luis ArraezSF2-2200
Bryce HarperPHI1-3000
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-2000
Adolis GarciaPHI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (L)PHI6.05313
Tyler MahleSF5.23046
Matt Gage (W)SF0.21001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +5
PHI +5
123456789
largest lead: SF 5 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 52%, SF 48% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.5 – 3.9 SF
Expected total
8.4
PhilliesThe matchupGiants
−110Our fair odds+110
4.5Expected runs3.9
+0.14Power rating−0.04
3.8Runs / game3.0
4.7Allowed / game4.8
7.7Hits / game7.6
1.00Home runs / game0.33
3.5Walks drawn / game2.3
6−5Season record4−8
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · SF chance
Our model fair52.3%47.7%
Kalshi56.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11052%−13156.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11048%+11446.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 18%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins bySF wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 19 Kstarted
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·SF
Apr 7 at SF
last game
Apr 7 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
PHI·SF
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.8
runs / game
3.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.8
6−5
season record
4−8
3−3
home record
2−7
3−2
away record
2−1
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
7.6
1.00
home runs / game
0.33
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
10.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.55
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

PHI · SF · 14 days
Philadelphia PhilliesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
Apr 7at SFSF 6 − 0
Apr 6at SFPHI 6 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at SFPHI 13 − 0
Jul 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jul 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 1
Apr 17, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at PHISF 11 − 4
Apr 15, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Apr 14, 2025at PHISF 10 − 4
May 29, 2024at SFPHI 6 − 1

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 7at SF0 − 6L
Apr 6at SF6 − 4W
Apr 5at COL1 − 4L
Apr 4at COL2 − 1W
Apr 3at COL10 − 1W
Apr 1vs WSH6 − 5W
Mar 31vs WSH3 − 2W
Mar 30vs WSH2 − 13L
Mar 29vs TEX3 − 8L
Mar 28vs TEX4 − 5L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 7vs PHI6 − 0W
Apr 6vs PHI4 − 6L
Apr 5vs NYM2 − 5L
Apr 4vs NYM0 − 9L
Apr 3vs NYM3 − 10L
Apr 2vs NYM7 − 2W
Apr 1at SD1 − 7L
Mar 31at SD9 − 3W
Mar 30at SD3 − 2W
Mar 28vs NYY1 − 3L