bayesRatings

Phillies at Rockies

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 7:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final PHI 2 – COL 1
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI100010000270
COL001000000160
Team box
PHI·COL
7
hits
6
0
home runs
0
4
walks
1
10
strikeouts
13
132
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brett SullivanCOL2-3001
Trea TurnerPHI2-4101
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-4001
Tyler FreemanCOL1-4000
Troy JohnstonCOL1-2100
Ezequiel TovarCOL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus Luzardo (W)PHI6.251011
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.00001
Brennan BernardinoCOL0.21120
Chase Dollander (L)COL4.14116

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · PHI 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 69%, COL 31% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
PHI by 2.9
Expected score
PHI 7.2 – 4.3 COL
Expected total
11.5
PhilliesThe matchupRockies
−227Our fair odds+227
7.2Expected runs4.3
+0.17Power rating−0.76
4.7Runs / game3.6
5.3Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game7.7
1.43Home runs / game0.71
3.4Walks drawn / game2.1
4−3Season record2−5
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · COL chance
Our model fair69.5%30.5%
Kalshi71.5%32.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−22769%−25171.5%———
COLColorado Rockies+22731%+20832.5%———
SpreadPHI by 2.9
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−2.9our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.5
Over11.5our total————
Under11.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 2.9 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 20 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 19 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 18 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 17 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 16 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 20 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byCOL wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more59%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more50%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one run21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.559%
Total over 11.544%
Total over 13.531%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 22 Kstarted
COLBrennan Bernardino RP · last 3 starts: 3.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·COL
Apr 3 at COL
last game
Apr 3 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
PHI·COL
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.76
4.7
runs / game
3.6
5.3
runs allowed / game
4.4
4−3
season record
2−5
3−3
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
2−4
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.1
hits / game
7.7
1.43
home runs / game
0.71
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.1
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
11.1
11.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.57
errors / game
0.14

Rating Trend

PHI · COL · 10 days
Philadelphia PhilliesColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 1−9
Apr 3at COLPHI 10 − 1
May 22, 2025at COLPHI 2 − 0
May 21, 2025at COLPHI 9 − 5
May 20, 2025at COLPHI 7 − 4
May 19, 2025at COLPHI 9 − 3
Apr 3, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Mar 31, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 1
May 26, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2
May 25, 2024at COLPHI 8 − 4

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 3at COL10 − 1W
Apr 1vs WSH6 − 5W
Mar 31vs WSH3 − 2W
Mar 30vs WSH2 − 13L
Mar 29vs TEX3 − 8L
Mar 28vs TEX4 − 5L
Mar 26vs TEX5 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025at LAD1 − 2L
Oct 8, 2025at LAD8 − 2W
Oct 6, 2025vs LAD3 − 4L

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 10L
Apr 1at TOR2 − 1W
Mar 31at TOR1 − 5L
Mar 30at TOR14 − 5W
Mar 29at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 28at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 27at MIA1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at SF0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025at SF3 − 6L