bayesRatings

Phillies at Rockies

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 3:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final PHI 10 – COL 1
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI71101000010130
COL000100000150
Team box
PHI·COL
13
hits
5
3
home runs
0
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
15
134
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon MarshPHI1-5113
Alec BohmPHI2-5103
Bryce HarperPHI2-3211
Trea TurnerPHI3-4201
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-3211
Bryson StottPHI2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (W)PHI6.15119
Michael Lorenzen (L)COL3.012922

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +9
PHI +9
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · PHI 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 69%, COL 31% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
PHI by 2.7
Expected score
PHI 7.1 – 4.3 COL
Expected total
11.4
PhilliesThe matchupRockies
−218Our fair odds+218
7.1Expected runs4.3
+0.15Power rating−0.73
3.8Runs / game4.0
6.0Allowed / game3.5
7.3Hits / game8.2
1.17Home runs / game0.83
3.5Walks drawn / game2.2
3−3Season record2−4
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · COL chance
Our model fair68.6%31.4%
Kalshi65.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−21869%−19165.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+21831%+15938.6%———
SpreadPHI by 2.7
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−2.7our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.4
Over11.4our total————
Under11.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 2.7 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 19 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 18 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 17 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 16 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byCOL wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more58%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more48%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.559%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.531%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 2.40 ERA, 19 Kstarted
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·COL
Apr 1 vs WSH
last game
Apr 1 at TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
PHI·COL
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.73
3.8
runs / game
4.0
6.0
runs allowed / game
3.5
3−3
season record
2−4
3−3
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
2−4
W2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
7.3
hits / game
8.2
1.17
home runs / game
0.83
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.2
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
10.5
10.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.67
errors / game
0.17

Rating Trend

PHI · COL · 9 days
Philadelphia PhilliesColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
May 22, 2025at COLPHI 2 − 0
May 21, 2025at COLPHI 9 − 5
May 20, 2025at COLPHI 7 − 4
May 19, 2025at COLPHI 9 − 3
Apr 3, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Mar 31, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 1
May 26, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2
May 25, 2024at COLPHI 8 − 4
May 24, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 2

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 1vs WSH6 − 5W
Mar 31vs WSH3 − 2W
Mar 30vs WSH2 − 13L
Mar 29vs TEX3 − 8L
Mar 28vs TEX4 − 5L
Mar 26vs TEX5 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025at LAD1 − 2L
Oct 8, 2025at LAD8 − 2W
Oct 6, 2025vs LAD3 − 4L
Oct 4, 2025vs LAD3 − 5L

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Apr 1at TOR2 − 1W
Mar 31at TOR1 − 5L
Mar 30at TOR14 − 5W
Mar 29at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 28at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 27at MIA1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at SF0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025at SF3 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at SEA2 − 6L