bayesRatings

Mets at Giants

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 8:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final NYM 9 – SF 0
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM0300501009121
SF000000000033
Team box
NYM·SF
12
hits
3
1
home runs
0
2
walks
2
10
strikeouts
5
120
pitches thrown
161
1
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyrone TaylorNYM2-3114
Mark VientosNYM3-5201
Bo BichetteNYM2-5101
Marcus SemienNYM2-3100
Luis TorrensNYM1-4101
Brett BatyNYM2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Clay Holmes (W)NYM7.03024
Landen Roupp (L)SF4.27517

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +9
NYM +9
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · NYM 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 50%, SF 50% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.5 – 4.2 SF
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupGiants
+101Our fair odds−101
4.5Expected runs4.2
+0.06Power rating−0.02
4.4Runs / game3.0
3.8Allowed / game4.6
8.0Hits / game7.1
1.00Home runs / game0.50
4.8Walks drawn / game2.8
4−4Season record3−5
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · SF chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10150%−10350.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−10150%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets−0.3our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins bySF wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more39%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.30 ERA, 9 Kstarted
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 7.94 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·SF
Apr 3 at SF
last game
Apr 3 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
NYM·SF
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.4
runs / game
3.0
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.6
4−4
season record
3−5
2−1
home record
1−4
2−3
away record
2−1
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.1
1.00
home runs / game
0.50
4.8
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.38
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

NYM · SF · 10 days
New York MetsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 4−6
Apr 3at SFNYM 10 − 3
Apr 2at SFSF 7 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at NYMSF 12 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 1, 2025at NYMSF 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2025at SFNYM 5 − 3
Jul 26, 2025at SFNYM 2 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at SFNYM 8 − 1
May 26, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 3
May 25, 2024at NYMSF 7 − 2

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 3at SF10 − 3W
Apr 2at SF2 − 7L
Apr 1at STL1 − 2L
Mar 31at STL0 − 3L
Mar 30at STL4 − 2W
Mar 29vs PIT3 − 4L
Mar 28vs PIT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs PIT11 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at MIA0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIA5 − 0W

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 3vs NYM3 − 10L
Apr 2vs NYM7 − 2W
Apr 1at SD1 − 7L
Mar 31at SD9 − 3W
Mar 30at SD3 − 2W
Mar 28vs NYY1 − 3L
Mar 27vs NYY0 − 3L
Mar 25vs NYY0 − 7L
Sep 28, 2025vs COL4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs COL4 − 3W