bayesRatings

Mets at Giants

MLB · Thursday, Apr 2 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final NYM 2 – SF 7
← MLB / Apr 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM110000000251
SF302011007130
Team box
NYM·SF
5
hits
13
1
home runs
1
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
7
142
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael DeversSF2-5111
Casey SchmittSF3-3001
Mark VientosNYM1-4111
Matt ChapmanSF2-5101
Luis ArraezSF2-5201
Daniel SusacSF3-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
David Peterson (L)NYM4.19525
Robbie Ray (W)SF5.13237
Blade Tidwell (S)SF3.02002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +5
NYM +5
123456789
largest lead: SF 5 · NYM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 49%, SF 51% · Updated Apr 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.5 – 4.1 SF
Expected total
8.6
MetsThe matchupGiants
+102Our fair odds−102
4.5Expected runs4.1
+0.06Power rating−0.02
3.8Runs / game2.3
3.3Allowed / game4.2
7.3Hits / game6.5
0.67Home runs / game0.50
4.8Walks drawn / game2.5
3−3Season record2−4
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · SF chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10249%−12154.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−10251%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets−0.3our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 18%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins bySF wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more39%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 8.49 ERA, 5 Kstarted
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.71 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·SF
Apr 1 at STL
last game
Apr 1 at SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
NYM·SF
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.8
runs / game
2.3
3.3
runs allowed / game
4.2
3−3
season record
2−4
2−1
home record
0−3
1−2
away record
2−1
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.3
hits / game
6.5
0.67
home runs / game
0.50
4.8
walks drawn / game
2.5
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
10.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.33
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

NYM · SF · 8 days
New York MetsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 4−6
Aug 3, 2025at NYMSF 12 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 1, 2025at NYMSF 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2025at SFNYM 5 − 3
Jul 26, 2025at SFNYM 2 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at SFNYM 8 − 1
May 26, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 3
May 25, 2024at NYMSF 7 − 2
May 24, 2024at NYMSF 8 − 7
Apr 24, 2024at SFNYM 8 − 2

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 1at STL1 − 2L
Mar 31at STL0 − 3L
Mar 30at STL4 − 2W
Mar 29vs PIT3 − 4L
Mar 28vs PIT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs PIT11 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at MIA0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIA5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at MIA2 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at CHC8 − 5W

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 1at SD1 − 7L
Mar 31at SD9 − 3W
Mar 30at SD3 − 2W
Mar 28vs NYY1 − 3L
Mar 27vs NYY0 − 3L
Mar 25vs NYY0 − 7L
Sep 28, 2025vs COL4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Sep 26, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Sep 24, 2025vs STL4 − 3W