bayesRatings

Mets at Giants

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final NYM 10 – SF 3
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM20030030210150
SF000002010350
Team box
NYM·SF
15
hits
5
3
home runs
0
6
walks
3
10
strikeouts
8
175
pitches thrown
197
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Marcus SemienNYM3-5113
Francisco AlvarezNYM2-5222
Bo BichetteNYM3-5201
Mark VientosNYM2-3101
Francisco LindorNYM2-4200
Luis Robert Jr.NYM1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nolan McLean (W)NYM5.11124
Tyler Mahle (L)SF5.08524

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +7
NYM +7
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · NYM 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 49%, SF 51% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.3 – 4.2 SF
Expected total
8.6
MetsThe matchupGiants
+105Our fair odds−105
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating−0.00
3.6Runs / game3.0
3.9Allowed / game3.9
7.0Hits / game7.4
0.71Home runs / game0.57
4.6Walks drawn / game2.7
3−4Season record3−4
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · SF chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10549%−13757.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−10551%+11446.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets−0.1our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 12%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%
← NYM wins bySF wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more37%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 25 Kstarted
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 1.98 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·SF
Apr 2 at SF
last game
Apr 2 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
NYM·SF
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
3.6
runs / game
3.0
3.9
runs allowed / game
3.9
3−4
season record
3−4
2−1
home record
1−3
1−3
away record
2−1
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.0
hits / game
7.4
0.71
home runs / game
0.57
4.6
walks drawn / game
2.7
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
10.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.43
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

NYM · SF · 9 days
New York MetsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
Apr 2at SFSF 7 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at NYMSF 12 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 1, 2025at NYMSF 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2025at SFNYM 5 − 3
Jul 26, 2025at SFNYM 2 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at SFNYM 8 − 1
May 26, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 3
May 25, 2024at NYMSF 7 − 2
May 24, 2024at NYMSF 8 − 7

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 2at SF2 − 7L
Apr 1at STL1 − 2L
Mar 31at STL0 − 3L
Mar 30at STL4 − 2W
Mar 29vs PIT3 − 4L
Mar 28vs PIT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs PIT11 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at MIA0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIA5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at MIA2 − 6L

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 2vs NYM7 − 2W
Apr 1at SD1 − 7L
Mar 31at SD9 − 3W
Mar 30at SD3 − 2W
Mar 28vs NYY1 − 3L
Mar 27vs NYY0 − 3L
Mar 25vs NYY0 − 7L
Sep 28, 2025vs COL4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Sep 26, 2025vs COL6 − 3W