bayesRatings

Phillies at Giants

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final PHI 0 – SF 6
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000000000041
SF100021026130
Team box
PHI·SF
4
hits
13
0
home runs
0
4
walks
1
8
strikeouts
8
149
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daniel SusacSF3-4102
Matt ChapmanSF3-4101
Luis ArraezSF1-4002
Willy AdamesSF2-4100
Bryce HarperPHI1-2000
Trea TurnerPHI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cristopher Sanchez (L)PHI5.011206
Robbie Ray (W)SF6.23037

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +6
PHI +6
123456789
largest lead: SF 6 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, SF 47% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
PHI by 0.7
Expected score
PHI 4.6 – 3.9 SF
Expected total
8.5
PhilliesThe matchupGiants
−114Our fair odds+114
4.6Expected runs3.9
+0.16Power rating−0.06
4.2Runs / game2.7
4.6Allowed / game5.2
8.1Hits / game7.1
1.10Home runs / game0.36
3.5Walks drawn / game2.5
6−4Season record3−8
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · SF chance
Our model fair53.2%46.8%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11453%−15460.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11447%+12444.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.7
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.7our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.7 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins bySF wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more42%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 22 Kstarted
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·SF
Apr 6 at SF
last game
Apr 6 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
PHI·SF
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.2
runs / game
2.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.2
6−4
season record
3−8
3−3
home record
1−7
3−1
away record
2−1
W1
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
7.1
1.10
home runs / game
0.36
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.5
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
10.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.50
errors / game
0.73

Rating Trend

PHI · SF · 13 days
Philadelphia PhilliesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
Apr 6at SFPHI 6 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at SFPHI 13 − 0
Jul 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jul 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 1
Apr 17, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at PHISF 11 − 4
Apr 15, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Apr 14, 2025at PHISF 10 − 4
May 29, 2024at SFPHI 6 − 1
May 28, 2024at SFSF 1 − 0

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 6at SF6 − 4W
Apr 5at COL1 − 4L
Apr 4at COL2 − 1W
Apr 3at COL10 − 1W
Apr 1vs WSH6 − 5W
Mar 31vs WSH3 − 2W
Mar 30vs WSH2 − 13L
Mar 29vs TEX3 − 8L
Mar 28vs TEX4 − 5L
Mar 26vs TEX5 − 3W

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Apr 6vs PHI4 − 6L
Apr 5vs NYM2 − 5L
Apr 4vs NYM0 − 9L
Apr 3vs NYM3 − 10L
Apr 2vs NYM7 − 2W
Apr 1at SD1 − 7L
Mar 31at SD9 − 3W
Mar 30at SD3 − 2W
Mar 28vs NYY1 − 3L
Mar 27vs NYY0 − 3L