bayesRatings

Phillies at Rockies

MLB · Sunday, Apr 5 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final PHI 1 – COL 4
← MLB / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI010000000161
COL30001000471
Team box
PHI·COL
6
hits
7
1
home runs
3
1
walks
2
10
strikeouts
8
120
pitches thrown
124
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mickey MoniakCOL2-4222
TJ RumfieldCOL1-4112
Adolis GarciaPHI2-4111
Hunter GoodmanCOL2-4100
Willi CastroCOL1-2000
Jake McCarthyCOL1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taijuan Walker (L)PHI5.07424
Tomoyuki Sugano (W)COL6.04115
Victor Vodnik (S)COL1.02003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 3 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 70%, COL 30% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
PHI by 2.9
Expected score
PHI 7.0 – 4.1 COL
Expected total
11.2
PhilliesThe matchupRockies
−232Our fair odds+232
7.0Expected runs4.1
+0.17Power rating−0.77
4.4Runs / game3.2
4.8Allowed / game4.1
8.0Hits / game7.5
1.25Home runs / game0.62
3.5Walks drawn / game2.0
5−3Season record2−6
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · COL chance
Our model fair69.9%30.1%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−23270%−15460.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+23230%+12943.7%———
SpreadPHI by 2.9
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−2.9our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 2.9 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 20 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 19 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 18 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 17 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 16 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 20 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byCOL wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more59%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more50%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one run21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHITaijuan Walker SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 7 Kstarted
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·COL
Apr 4 at COL
last game
Apr 4 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
PHI·COL
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.77
4.4
runs / game
3.2
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.1
5−3
season record
2−6
3−3
home record
0−2
2−0
away record
2−4
W4
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.0
hits / game
7.5
1.25
home runs / game
0.62
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.0
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
11.4
11.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.50
errors / game
0.12

Rating Trend

PHI · COL · 11 days
Philadelphia PhilliesColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 1−9
Apr 4at COLPHI 2 − 1
Apr 3at COLPHI 10 − 1
May 22, 2025at COLPHI 2 − 0
May 21, 2025at COLPHI 9 − 5
May 20, 2025at COLPHI 7 − 4
May 19, 2025at COLPHI 9 − 3
Apr 3, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Mar 31, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 1
May 26, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Apr 4at COL2 − 1W
Apr 3at COL10 − 1W
Apr 1vs WSH6 − 5W
Mar 31vs WSH3 − 2W
Mar 30vs WSH2 − 13L
Mar 29vs TEX3 − 8L
Mar 28vs TEX4 − 5L
Mar 26vs TEX5 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025at LAD1 − 2L
Oct 8, 2025at LAD8 − 2W

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Apr 4vs PHI1 − 2L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 10L
Apr 1at TOR2 − 1W
Mar 31at TOR1 − 5L
Mar 30at TOR14 − 5W
Mar 29at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 28at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 27at MIA1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at SF0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at SF3 − 4L