bayesRatings

Mets at Giants

MLB · Sunday, Apr 5 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final NYM 5 – SF 2
← MLB / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM0100000405130
SF000002000272
Team box
NYM·SF
13
hits
7
0
home runs
0
2
walks
2
5
strikeouts
8
131
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis TorrensNYM1-2102
Luis Robert Jr.NYM3-5200
Mark VientosNYM2-4101
Jared YoungNYM3-3000
Matt ChapmanSF2-3101
Marcus SemienNYM1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kodai SengaNYM5.25227
Huascar Brazoban (W)NYM1.10000
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.02001
Logan WebbSF7.07113
Keaton Winn (L)SF0.12200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 1 · NYM 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 51%, SF 49% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
NYM by 0.5
Expected score
NYM 4.6 – 4.1 SF
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupGiants
−103Our fair odds+103
4.6Expected runs4.1
+0.08Power rating−0.04
4.9Runs / game2.7
3.3Allowed / game5.1
8.4Hits / game6.7
1.00Home runs / game0.44
4.4Walks drawn / game2.7
5−4Season record3−6
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · SF chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10351%+10149.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+10349%−12154.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.5
NYMNew York Mets−0.5our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.5 expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins bySF wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more41%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more30%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMKodai Senga RP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 19 Kstarted
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·SF
Apr 4 at SF
last game
Apr 4 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
NYM·SF
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.9
runs / game
2.7
3.3
runs allowed / game
5.1
5−4
season record
3−6
2−1
home record
1−5
3−3
away record
2−1
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
6.7
1.00
home runs / game
0.44
4.4
walks drawn / game
2.7
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.44
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

NYM · SF · 11 days
New York MetsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
Apr 4at SFNYM 9 − 0
Apr 3at SFNYM 10 − 3
Apr 2at SFSF 7 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at NYMSF 12 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 1, 2025at NYMSF 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2025at SFNYM 5 − 3
Jul 26, 2025at SFNYM 2 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at SFNYM 8 − 1
May 26, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 3

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 4at SF9 − 0W
Apr 3at SF10 − 3W
Apr 2at SF2 − 7L
Apr 1at STL1 − 2L
Mar 31at STL0 − 3L
Mar 30at STL4 − 2W
Mar 29vs PIT3 − 4L
Mar 28vs PIT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs PIT11 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at MIA0 − 4L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 4vs NYM0 − 9L
Apr 3vs NYM3 − 10L
Apr 2vs NYM7 − 2W
Apr 1at SD1 − 7L
Mar 31at SD9 − 3W
Mar 30at SD3 − 2W
Mar 28vs NYY1 − 3L
Mar 27vs NYY0 − 3L
Mar 25vs NYY0 − 7L
Sep 28, 2025vs COL4 − 0W