bayesRatings

Phillies at Giants

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final PHI 6 – SF 4
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI0000204006110
SF0031000004110
Team box
PHI·SF
11
hits
11
0
home runs
0
6
walks
1
7
strikeouts
7
172
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce HarperPHI3-4103
Matt ChapmanSF2-4102
Alec BohmPHI2-5001
Luis ArraezSF2-4101
J.T. RealmutoPHI2-3100
Trea TurnerPHI1-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew PainterPHI4.09411
Jonathan Bowlan (W)PHI1.00002
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.01000
Adrian HouserSF6.09423
Ryan Borucki (L)SF0.12210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +4
PHI +4
123456789
largest lead: SF 4 · PHI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, SF 47% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
PHI by 0.7
Expected score
PHI 4.5 – 3.9 SF
Expected total
8.4
PhilliesThe matchupGiants
−112Our fair odds+112
4.5Expected runs3.9
+0.15Power rating−0.05
4.0Runs / game2.6
4.7Allowed / game5.1
7.8Hits / game6.7
1.22Home runs / game0.40
3.2Walks drawn / game2.6
5−4Season record3−7
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · SF chance
Our model fair52.7%47.3%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11253%−11653.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11247%−10350.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.7
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.7our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.7 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 18%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins bySF wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more42%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 1 start: 5.1 IP, 1.69 ERA, 8 Kstarted
SFAdrian Houser SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·SF
Apr 5 at COL
last game
Apr 5 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
PHI·SF
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.0
runs / game
2.6
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.1
5−4
season record
3−7
3−3
home record
1−6
2−1
away record
2−1
L1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
6.7
1.22
home runs / game
0.40
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
11.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.56
errors / game
0.80

Rating Trend

PHI · SF · 12 days
Philadelphia PhilliesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 6−4
Jul 9, 2025at SFPHI 13 − 0
Jul 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jul 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 1
Apr 17, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at PHISF 11 − 4
Apr 15, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Apr 14, 2025at PHISF 10 − 4
May 29, 2024at SFPHI 6 − 1
May 28, 2024at SFSF 1 − 0
May 27, 2024at SFSF 8 − 4

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 5at COL1 − 4L
Apr 4at COL2 − 1W
Apr 3at COL10 − 1W
Apr 1vs WSH6 − 5W
Mar 31vs WSH3 − 2W
Mar 30vs WSH2 − 13L
Mar 29vs TEX3 − 8L
Mar 28vs TEX4 − 5L
Mar 26vs TEX5 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025at LAD1 − 2L

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 5vs NYM2 − 5L
Apr 4vs NYM0 − 9L
Apr 3vs NYM3 − 10L
Apr 2vs NYM7 − 2W
Apr 1at SD1 − 7L
Mar 31at SD9 − 3W
Mar 30at SD3 − 2W
Mar 28vs NYY1 − 3L
Mar 27vs NYY0 − 3L
Mar 25vs NYY0 − 7L