bayesRatings

Giants at Orioles

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 6:15 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final SF 2 – BAL 6
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF0101000002100
BAL01120011690
Team box
SF·BAL
10
hits
9
0
home runs
2
1
walks
4
6
strikeouts
11
144
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jeremiah JacksonBAL3-4112
Heliot RamosSF2-4002
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-4111
Colton CowserBAL2-4001
Coby MayoBAL1-4102
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Webb (L)SF6.05436
Chris BassittBAL4.27112
Grant Wolfram (W)BAL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +4
SF +4
123456789
largest lead: BAL 4 · SF 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 49%, BAL 51% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.4 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
8.6
GiantsThe matchupOrioles
+104Our fair odds−104
4.4Expected runs4.2
−0.01Power rating−0.06
3.4Runs / game3.7
4.3Allowed / game4.2
8.0Hits / game7.9
0.50Home runs / game0.69
2.3Walks drawn / game4.0
6−8Season record6−7
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · BAL chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+10449%−12154.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10451%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.2our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byBAL wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more38%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more28%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted
BALChris Bassitt SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 10.97 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·BAL
Apr 10 at BAL
last game
Apr 10 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
SF·BAL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.4
runs / game
3.7
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.2
6−8
season record
6−7
3−7
home record
3−4
3−1
away record
3−3
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
7.9
0.50
home runs / game
0.69
2.3
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.64
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

SF · BAL · 17 days
San Francisco GiantsBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
Apr 10at BALSF 6 − 3
Aug 31, 2025at SFSF 13 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at SFBAL 11 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at SFSF 15 − 8
Sep 19, 2024at BALBAL 5 − 3
Sep 18, 2024at BALSF 5 − 3
Sep 17, 2024at BALSF 10 − 0
Jun 4, 2023at SFBAL 8 − 3
Jun 3, 2023at SFSF 4 − 0
Jun 2, 2023at SFBAL 3 − 2

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 10at BAL6 − 3W
Apr 8vs PHI5 − 0W
Apr 7vs PHI6 − 0W
Apr 6vs PHI4 − 6L
Apr 5vs NYM2 − 5L
Apr 4vs NYM0 − 9L
Apr 3vs NYM3 − 10L
Apr 2vs NYM7 − 2W
Apr 1at SD1 − 7L
Mar 31at SD9 − 3W

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 10vs SF3 − 6L
Apr 8at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 7at CHW4 − 2W
Apr 6at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 5at PIT2 − 8L
Apr 4at PIT2 − 3L
Apr 3at PIT4 − 5L
Apr 1vs TEX8 − 3W
Mar 31vs TEX5 − 8L
Mar 30vs TEX2 − 5L