bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Orioles

MLB · Monday, Apr 13 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final ARI 7 – BAL 9
← MLB / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI1012030007101
BAL00100521981
Team box
ARI·BAL
10
hits
8
4
home runs
3
1
walks
4
11
strikeouts
9
140
pitches thrown
143
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jeremiah JacksonBAL3-4225
Nolan ArenadoARI2-4225
Ketel MarteARI2-5222
Pete AlonsoBAL2-3212
Ildemaro VargasARI2-4100
Jorge BarrosaARI2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryne NelsonARI5.13127
Jonathan Loaisiga (L)ARI0.21210
Dean KremerBAL5.06209
Albert Suarez (W)BAL2.04310
Ryan Helsley (S)BAL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +6
ARI +6
123456789
largest lead: BAL 2 · ARI 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 49%, BAL 51% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
ARI by 0.5
Expected score
ARI 4.8 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
9.2
DiamondbacksThe matchupOrioles
+102Our fair odds−102
4.8Expected runs4.3
+0.04Power rating−0.03
4.0Runs / game4.0
4.4Allowed / game3.9
7.2Hits / game8.2
0.56Home runs / game0.80
2.7Walks drawn / game4.1
9−7Season record8−7
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · BAL chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10249%+10548.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10251%−13156.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.5
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.5our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.5 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byBAL wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more41%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIRyne Nelson SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 12 Kstarted
BALDean Kremer SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·BAL
Apr 12 at PHI
last game
Apr 12 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
ARI·BAL
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.0
runs / game
4.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.9
9−7
season record
8−7
5−2
home record
5−4
4−5
away record
3−3
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.2
hits / game
8.2
0.56
home runs / game
0.80
2.7
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.62
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

ARI · BAL · 19 days
Arizona DiamondbacksBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · BAL 5−4
Apr 9, 2025at ARIARI 9 − 0
Apr 8, 2025at ARIARI 4 − 3
Apr 7, 2025at ARIBAL 5 − 1
May 12, 2024at BALARI 9 − 2
May 11, 2024at BALBAL 5 − 4
May 10, 2024at BALBAL 4 − 2
Sep 3, 2023at ARIBAL 8 − 5
Sep 2, 2023at ARIBAL 7 − 3
Sep 1, 2023at ARIARI 4 − 2

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 12at PHI4 − 3W
Apr 11at PHI3 − 4L
Apr 10at PHI5 − 4W
Apr 9at NYM7 − 1W
Apr 8at NYM7 − 2W
Apr 7at NYM3 − 4L
Apr 5vs ATL6 − 5W
Apr 4vs ATL2 − 1W
Apr 3vs ATL0 − 2L
Apr 2vs ATL2 − 17L

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 12vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 11vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 10vs SF3 − 6L
Apr 8at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 7at CHW4 − 2W
Apr 6at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 5at PIT2 − 8L
Apr 4at PIT2 − 3L
Apr 3at PIT4 − 5L
Apr 1vs TEX8 − 3W