bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Mets

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 3:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final ARI 3 – NYM 4
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ARI0000300000391
NYM1100000101481
Team box
ARI·NYM
9
hits
8
0
home runs
0
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
7
152
pitches thrown
187
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan ArenadoARI2-5001
Adrian Del CastilloARI1-5002
Ketel MarteARI2-5000
Gabriel MorenoARI2-3100
Francisco LindorNYM2-5200
Jorge PolancoNYM2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac GallenARI5.05145
Paul Sewald (L)ARI0.11000
Freddy PeraltaNYM4.23335
Luke Weaver (W)NYM1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
ARI +3
12345678910
largest lead: NYM 2 · ARI 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 46%, NYM 54% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 5.1 – 4.7 ARI
Expected total
9.8
DiamondbacksThe matchupMets
+117Our fair odds−117
4.7Expected runs5.1
+0.01Power rating+0.08
3.5Runs / game4.9
5.2Allowed / game3.2
6.5Hits / game8.9
0.80Home runs / game0.90
2.5Walks drawn / game4.2
5−5Season record6−4
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · NYM chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11746%+12943.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−11754%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.4our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more40%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more30%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.65 ERA, 7 Kstarted
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·NYM
Apr 5 vs ATL
last game
Apr 5 at SF
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
ARI·NYM
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
3.5
runs / game
4.9
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.2
5−5
season record
6−4
5−2
home record
2−1
0−3
away record
4−3
W2
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
6−4
6.5
hits / game
8.9
0.80
home runs / game
0.90
2.5
walks drawn / game
4.2
6.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
6.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.50
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

ARI · NYM · 13 days
Arizona DiamondbacksNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
May 7, 2025at ARINYM 7 − 1
May 6, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 1
May 5, 2025at ARINYM 5 − 4
May 1, 2025at NYMARI 4 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at NYMARI 4 − 3
Apr 29, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 3
Aug 29, 2024at ARINYM 3 − 2
Aug 28, 2024at ARIARI 8 − 5
Aug 27, 2024at ARINYM 8 − 3
Jun 2, 2024at NYMARI 5 − 4

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 5vs ATL6 − 5W
Apr 4vs ATL2 − 1W
Apr 3vs ATL0 − 2L
Apr 2vs ATL2 − 17L
Apr 1vs DET1 − 0W
Mar 31vs DET7 − 5W
Mar 30vs DET9 − 6W
Mar 28at LAD2 − 3L
Mar 27at LAD4 − 5L
Mar 26at LAD2 − 8L

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 5at SF5 − 2W
Apr 4at SF9 − 0W
Apr 3at SF10 − 3W
Apr 2at SF2 − 7L
Apr 1at STL1 − 2L
Mar 31at STL0 − 3L
Mar 30at STL4 − 2W
Mar 29vs PIT3 − 4L
Mar 28vs PIT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs PIT11 − 7W