bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Mets

MLB · Thursday, Apr 9 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final ARI 7 – NYM 1
← MLB / Apr 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000000430780
NYM100000000160
Team box
ARI·NYM
8
hits
6
0
home runs
1
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
6
133
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gabriel MorenoARI2-2102
Luis Robert Jr.NYM1-3111
Jose FernandezARI2-4101
Jorge BarrosaARI1-4001
Adrian Del CastilloARI1-4101
Tim TawaARI1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eduardo Rodriguez (W)ARI6.05123
Nolan McLean (L)NYM6.13228

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +6
ARI +6
123456789
largest lead: NYM 1 · ARI 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 46%, NYM 54% · Updated Apr 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 5.0 – 4.7 ARI
Expected total
9.7
DiamondbacksThe matchupMets
+116Our fair odds−116
4.7Expected runs5.0
+0.02Power rating+0.08
3.8Runs / game4.6
4.8Allowed / game3.5
7.1Hits / game8.7
0.67Home runs / game0.75
2.7Walks drawn / game3.9
6−6Season record7−5
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · NYM chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11646%+15239.6%———
NYMNew York Mets−11654%−18364.6%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.3our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more39%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more29%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·NYM
Apr 8 at NYM
last game
Apr 8 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
ARI·NYM
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
3.8
runs / game
4.6
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.5
6−6
season record
7−5
5−2
home record
3−2
1−4
away record
4−3
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.1
hits / game
8.7
0.67
home runs / game
0.75
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.75
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

ARI · NYM · 15 days
Arizona DiamondbacksNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Apr 8at NYMARI 7 − 2
Apr 7at NYMNYM 4 − 3
May 7, 2025at ARINYM 7 − 1
May 6, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 1
May 5, 2025at ARINYM 5 − 4
May 1, 2025at NYMARI 4 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at NYMARI 4 − 3
Apr 29, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 3
Aug 29, 2024at ARINYM 3 − 2
Aug 28, 2024at ARIARI 8 − 5

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 8at NYM7 − 2W
Apr 7at NYM3 − 4L
Apr 5vs ATL6 − 5W
Apr 4vs ATL2 − 1W
Apr 3vs ATL0 − 2L
Apr 2vs ATL2 − 17L
Apr 1vs DET1 − 0W
Mar 31vs DET7 − 5W
Mar 30vs DET9 − 6W
Mar 28at LAD2 − 3L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 8vs ARI2 − 7L
Apr 7vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 5at SF5 − 2W
Apr 4at SF9 − 0W
Apr 3at SF10 − 3W
Apr 2at SF2 − 7L
Apr 1at STL1 − 2L
Mar 31at STL0 − 3L
Mar 30at STL4 − 2W
Mar 29vs PIT3 − 4L