bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Phillies

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final ARI 5 – PHI 4
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000050000570
PHI400000000470
Team box
ARI·PHI
7
hits
7
0
home runs
1
3
walks
2
10
strikeouts
16
143
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon MarshPHI1-4113
James McCannARI1-2002
Ketel MarteARI1-4102
Bryce HarperPHI2-4101
Ildemaro VargasARI1-4101
Alek ThomasARI1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Soroka (W)ARI5.254210
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.01000
Jesus Luzardo (L)PHI4.25538

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +4
ARI +4
123456789
largest lead: PHI 4 · ARI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 45%, PHI 55% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 4.4 ARI
Expected total
9.1
DiamondbacksThe matchupPhillies
+120Our fair odds−120
4.4Expected runs4.7
+0.04Power rating+0.12
4.0Runs / game3.5
4.5Allowed / game4.8
7.2Hits / game7.4
0.62Home runs / game0.92
2.7Walks drawn / game3.7
7−6Season record6−6
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · PHI chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+12045%+14640.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12055%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.3our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more38%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more28%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 16 Kstarted
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·PHI
Apr 9 at NYM
last game
Apr 8 at SF
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
ARI·PHI
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
4.0
runs / game
3.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
7−6
season record
6−6
5−2
home record
3−3
2−4
away record
3−3
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.2
hits / game
7.4
0.62
home runs / game
0.92
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
6.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
0.69
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

ARI · PHI · 16 days
Arizona DiamondbacksPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 4−6
Sep 21, 2025at ARIARI 9 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at ARIARI 4 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at ARIPHI 8 − 2
May 4, 2025at PHIARI 11 − 9
May 3, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 2
May 2, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 11, 2024at ARIARI 12 − 5
Aug 10, 2024at ARIARI 11 − 1
Aug 9, 2024at ARIARI 3 − 2
Aug 8, 2024at ARIPHI 6 − 4

ARI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 9at NYM7 − 1W
Apr 8at NYM7 − 2W
Apr 7at NYM3 − 4L
Apr 5vs ATL6 − 5W
Apr 4vs ATL2 − 1W
Apr 3vs ATL0 − 2L
Apr 2vs ATL2 − 17L
Apr 1vs DET1 − 0W
Mar 31vs DET7 − 5W
Mar 30vs DET9 − 6W

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 8at SF0 − 5L
Apr 7at SF0 − 6L
Apr 6at SF6 − 4W
Apr 5at COL1 − 4L
Apr 4at COL2 − 1W
Apr 3at COL10 − 1W
Apr 1vs WSH6 − 5W
Mar 31vs WSH3 − 2W
Mar 30vs WSH2 − 13L
Mar 29vs TEX3 − 8L