bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Orioles

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final ARI 4 – BAL 3
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI0000400004100
BAL011000010370
Team box
ARI·BAL
10
hits
7
1
home runs
1
1
walks
6
13
strikeouts
5
141
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ildemaro VargasARI1-5113
Samuel BasalloBAL2-3111
Geraldo PerdomoARI3-4100
Jose FernandezARI2-4001
Leody TaverasBAL1-3002
James McCannARI2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (W)ARI5.15243
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00001
Trevor Rogers (L)BAL4.29416

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 2 · ARI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 49%, BAL 51% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.9 – 4.5 BAL
Expected total
9.4
DiamondbacksThe matchupOrioles
+104Our fair odds−104
4.9Expected runs4.5
+0.03Power rating−0.02
4.2Runs / game4.3
4.6Allowed / game4.1
7.4Hits / game8.2
0.76Home runs / game0.94
2.6Walks drawn / game4.1
9−8Season record9−7
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · BAL chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10449%+13442.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10451%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.4our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byBAL wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more40%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 8.31 ERA, 11 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·BAL
Apr 13 at BAL
last game
Apr 13 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
ARI·BAL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.2
runs / game
4.3
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.1
9−8
season record
9−7
5−2
home record
6−4
4−6
away record
3−3
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.4
hits / game
8.2
0.76
home runs / game
0.94
2.6
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.65
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

ARI · BAL · 20 days
Arizona DiamondbacksBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 6−4
Apr 13at BALBAL 9 − 7
Apr 9, 2025at ARIARI 9 − 0
Apr 8, 2025at ARIARI 4 − 3
Apr 7, 2025at ARIBAL 5 − 1
May 12, 2024at BALARI 9 − 2
May 11, 2024at BALBAL 5 − 4
May 10, 2024at BALBAL 4 − 2
Sep 3, 2023at ARIBAL 8 − 5
Sep 2, 2023at ARIBAL 7 − 3
Sep 1, 2023at ARIARI 4 − 2

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 13at BAL7 − 9L
Apr 12at PHI4 − 3W
Apr 11at PHI3 − 4L
Apr 10at PHI5 − 4W
Apr 9at NYM7 − 1W
Apr 8at NYM7 − 2W
Apr 7at NYM3 − 4L
Apr 5vs ATL6 − 5W
Apr 4vs ATL2 − 1W
Apr 3vs ATL0 − 2L

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 13vs ARI9 − 7W
Apr 12vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 11vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 10vs SF3 − 6L
Apr 8at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 7at CHW4 − 2W
Apr 6at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 5at PIT2 − 8L
Apr 4at PIT2 − 3L
Apr 3at PIT4 − 5L