bayesRatings

Orioles at Guardians

MLB · Thursday, Apr 16 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final BAL 2 – CLE 4
← MLB / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000000002240
CLE20001100480
Team box
BAL·CLE
4
hits
8
0
home runs
1
2
walks
4
9
strikeouts
10
147
pitches thrown
131
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose RamirezCLE2-3212
George ValeraCLE2-4001
Steven KwanCLE2-4001
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4001
Taylor WardBAL1-3000
Leody TaverasBAL1-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Baz (L)BAL6.06436
Parker Messick (W)CLE8.02229
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.02000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +4
BAL +4
123456789
largest lead: CLE 4 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 45%, CLE 55% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
CLE by 0.6
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 3.6 BAL
Expected total
7.8
OriolesThe matchupGuardians
+124Our fair odds−124
3.6Expected runs4.2
−0.04Power rating+0.07
4.3Runs / game3.9
4.3Allowed / game4.3
8.1Hits / game7.5
0.94Home runs / game1.00
4.2Walks drawn / game3.6
9−9Season record10−9
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · CLE chance
Our model fair44.6%55.4%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+12445%+10947.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−12455%−13156.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.6
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.6our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.6 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more40%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more29%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 0.51 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·CLE
Apr 15 vs ARI
last game
Apr 15 at STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
BAL·CLE
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.3
runs / game
3.9
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.3
9−9
season record
10−9
6−6
home record
4−2
3−3
away record
6−7
L2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
7.5
0.94
home runs / game
1.00
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.61
errors / game
0.32

Rating Trend

BAL · CLE · 22 days
Baltimore OriolesCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Jul 24, 2025at CLEBAL 4 − 3
Jul 23, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Jul 22, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 3
Jul 21, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 2
Apr 16, 2025at BALBAL 9 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at BALCLE 6 − 3
Aug 4, 2024at CLEBAL 9 − 5
Aug 3, 2024at CLEBAL 7 − 4
Aug 2, 2024at CLECLE 8 − 4

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 15vs ARI5 − 8L
Apr 14vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 13vs ARI9 − 7W
Apr 12vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 11vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 10vs SF3 − 6L
Apr 8at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 7at CHW4 − 2W
Apr 6at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 5at PIT2 − 8L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 15at STL3 − 5L
Apr 14at STL5 − 6L
Apr 13at STL9 − 3W
Apr 12at ATL1 − 13L
Apr 11at ATL6 − 0W
Apr 10at ATL5 − 11L
Apr 8vs KC10 − 2W
Apr 7vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 6vs KC2 − 4L
Apr 5vs CHC6 − 5W