bayesRatings

Guardians at Cardinals

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 15 · 12:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CLE 3 – STL 5
← MLB / Apr 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE100000200380
STL01000310590
Team box
CLE·STL
8
hits
9
0
home runs
0
2
walks
7
8
strikeouts
7
149
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BurlesonSTL2-5002
Nathan ChurchSTL3-4201
Bo NaylorCLE1-3002
Kyle ManzardoCLE2-2001
Daniel SchneemannCLE2-3100
Pedro PagesSTL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Slade CecconiCLE4.03154
Connor Brogdon (L)CLE1.12310
Dustin May (W)STL6.06114
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 3 · CLE 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 51%, STL 49% · Updated Apr 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.4 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
8.4
GuardiansThe matchupCardinals
−103Our fair odds+103
4.4Expected runs4.0
+0.07Power rating−0.06
4.0Runs / game4.4
4.2Allowed / game5.5
7.4Hits / game7.5
1.06Home runs / game1.18
3.7Walks drawn / game4.2
10−8Season record9−8
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · STL chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10351%−10751.8%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10349%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.4our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 12%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 18%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins bySTL wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more29%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 14 Kstarted
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 9.45 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·STL
Apr 14 at STL
last game
Apr 14 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
CLE·STL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.0
runs / game
4.4
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.5
10−8
season record
9−8
4−2
home record
6−5
6−6
away record
3−3
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.4
hits / game
7.5
1.06
home runs / game
1.18
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.2
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.1
0.33
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

CLE · STL · 21 days
Cleveland GuardiansSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 7−3
Apr 14at STLSTL 6 − 5
Apr 13at STLCLE 9 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at CLESTL 7 − 0
Jun 28, 2025at CLESTL 9 − 6
Jun 27, 2025at CLESTL 5 − 0
Sep 22, 2024at STLSTL 2 − 1
Sep 21, 2024at STLSTL 6 − 5
Sep 20, 2024at STLCLE 5 − 1
May 28, 2023at CLECLE 4 − 3
May 27, 2023at CLESTL 2 − 1

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 14at STL5 − 6L
Apr 13at STL9 − 3W
Apr 12at ATL1 − 13L
Apr 11at ATL6 − 0W
Apr 10at ATL5 − 11L
Apr 8vs KC10 − 2W
Apr 7vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 6vs KC2 − 4L
Apr 5vs CHC6 − 5W
Apr 5vs CHC0 − 1L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 14vs CLE6 − 5W
Apr 13vs CLE3 − 9L
Apr 12vs BOS3 − 9L
Apr 11vs BOS1 − 7L
Apr 10vs BOS3 − 2W
Apr 8at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 7at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 6at WSH6 − 9L
Apr 5at DET5 − 3W
Apr 4at DET6 − 11L