bayesRatings

Orioles at Guardians

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final BAL 6 – CLE 4
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000000060671
CLE000000400470
Team box
BAL·CLE
7
hits
7
1
home runs
1
6
walks
7
11
strikeouts
7
163
pitches thrown
161
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daniel SchneemannCLE2-4114
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-4113
Weston WilsonBAL1-1102
Pete AlonsoBAL2-4100
Leody TaverasBAL1-3100
Johnathan RodriguezBAL0-0001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris BassittBAL5.04042
Rico Garcia (W)BAL1.00000
Ryan Helsley (S)BAL1.00011
Tanner BibeeCLE6.04035
Erik Sabrowski (L)CLE0.21211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +4
BAL +4
123456789
largest lead: CLE 4 · BAL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 44%, CLE 56% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
CLE by 0.7
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 3.5 BAL
Expected total
7.7
OriolesThe matchupGuardians
+125Our fair odds−125
3.5Expected runs4.2
−0.05Power rating+0.07
4.2Runs / game4.0
4.3Allowed / game4.2
7.9Hits / game7.5
0.89Home runs / game1.00
4.1Walks drawn / game3.6
9−10Season record11−9
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · CLE chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+12544%+11446.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−12556%−14258.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.7
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.7our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.7 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more41%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALChris Bassitt SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 5 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·CLE
Apr 16 at CLE
last game
Apr 16 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
BAL·CLE
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.2
runs / game
4.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.2
9−10
season record
11−9
6−6
home record
5−2
3−4
away record
6−7
L3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
7.5
0.89
home runs / game
1.00
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.58
errors / game
0.30

Rating Trend

BAL · CLE · 23 days
Baltimore OriolesCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Apr 16at CLECLE 4 − 2
Jul 24, 2025at CLEBAL 4 − 3
Jul 23, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Jul 22, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 3
Jul 21, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 2
Apr 16, 2025at BALBAL 9 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at BALCLE 6 − 3
Aug 4, 2024at CLEBAL 9 − 5
Aug 3, 2024at CLEBAL 7 − 4

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Apr 16at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 15vs ARI5 − 8L
Apr 14vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 13vs ARI9 − 7W
Apr 12vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 11vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 10vs SF3 − 6L
Apr 8at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 7at CHW4 − 2W
Apr 6at CHW2 − 1W

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 16vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 15at STL3 − 5L
Apr 14at STL5 − 6L
Apr 13at STL9 − 3W
Apr 12at ATL1 − 13L
Apr 11at ATL6 − 0W
Apr 10at ATL5 − 11L
Apr 8vs KC10 − 2W
Apr 7vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 6vs KC2 − 4L