bayesRatings

Yankees at Red Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final NYY 4 – BOS 1
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY301000000460
BOS000000001150
Team box
NYY·BOS
6
hits
5
1
home runs
0
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
9
126
pitches thrown
123
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Amed RosarioNYY1-1114
Jarren DuranBOS3-4001
Giancarlo StantonNYY2-4100
Trevor StoryBOS1-4100
Wilyer AbreuBOS1-4000
Randal GrichukNYY1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Fried (W)NYY8.03029
Ranger Suarez (L)BOS4.25424

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
NYY +4
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · NYY 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 52%, BOS 48% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
NYY by 0.7
Expected score
NYY 4.9 – 4.2 BOS
Expected total
9.1
YankeesThe matchupRed Sox
−109Our fair odds+109
4.9Expected runs4.2
+0.22Power rating+0.05
5.0Runs / game3.9
3.6Allowed / game4.6
7.2Hits / game7.6
1.43Home runs / game0.57
4.9Walks drawn / game3.5
14−9Season record9−14
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · BOS chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−10952%−13156.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+10948%+10947.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.7
NYYNew York Yankees−0.7our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.7 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 17%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byBOS wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more32%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 4.95 ERA, 13 Kstarted
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·BOS
Apr 21 at BOS
last game
Apr 21 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
NYY·BOS
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
5.0
runs / game
3.9
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.6
14−9
season record
9−14
8−5
home record
5−6
6−4
away record
4−8
W4
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.2
hits / game
7.6
1.43
home runs / game
0.57
4.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.52
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

NYY · BOS · 28 days
New York YankeesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Apr 21at BOSNYY 4 − 0
Oct 2, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 0post
Oct 1, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3post
Sep 30, 2025at NYYBOS 3 − 1post
Sep 14, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Sep 13, 2025at BOSNYY 5 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at BOSNYY 4 − 1
Aug 24, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at NYYBOS 12 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at NYYBOS 1 − 0

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Apr 21at BOS4 − 0W
Apr 19vs KC7 − 0W
Apr 18vs KC13 − 4W
Apr 17vs KC4 − 2W
Apr 16vs LAA4 − 11L
Apr 15vs LAA5 − 4W
Apr 14vs LAA1 − 7L
Apr 13vs LAA11 − 10W
Apr 12at TB4 − 5L
Apr 11at TB4 − 5L

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 21vs NYY0 − 4L
Apr 20vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 19vs DET2 − 6L
Apr 18vs DET1 − 4L
Apr 17vs DET1 − 0W
Apr 15at MIN9 − 5W
Apr 14at MIN0 − 6L
Apr 13at MIN6 − 13L
Apr 12at STL9 − 3W
Apr 11at STL7 − 1W