bayesRatings

Angels at Yankees

MLB · Thursday, Apr 16 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final LAA 11 – NYY 4
← MLB / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA2000041401190
NYY102001000480
Team box
LAA·NYY
9
hits
8
3
home runs
3
7
walks
4
7
strikeouts
8
150
pitches thrown
182
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jo AdellLAA2-4314
Oswald PerazaLAA2-4213
Giancarlo StantonNYY1-4112
Mike TroutLAA1-2311
Aaron JudgeNYY1-4111
Ben RiceNYY1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brent SuterLAA2.03122
Sam Aldegheri (W)LAA1.22112
Max Fried (L)NYY5.13533

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +7
LAA +7
123456789
largest lead: NYY 1 · LAA 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 39%, NYY 61% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
NYY by 1.4
Expected score
NYY 5.5 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
9.5
AngelsThe matchupYankees
+155Our fair odds−155
4.0Expected runs5.5
−0.15Power rating+0.19
4.9Runs / game4.6
4.9Allowed / game3.6
7.4Hits / game6.9
1.53Home runs / game1.11
4.6Walks drawn / game4.6
9−10Season record10−8
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · NYY chance
Our model fair39.3%60.7%
Kalshi29.4%74.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+15539%+24029.4%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15561%−29074.4%———
SpreadNYY by 1.4
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.4our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.4 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more48%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more38%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAABrent Suter RP · last 3 starts: 8.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 4 Kstarted
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 21.2 IP, 2.49 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·NYY
Apr 15 at NYY
last game
Apr 15 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
LAA·NYY
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
4.9
runs / game
4.6
4.9
runs allowed / game
3.6
9−10
season record
10−8
3−3
home record
5−4
6−7
away record
5−4
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.4
hits / game
6.9
1.53
home runs / game
1.11
4.6
walks drawn / game
4.6
9.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.74
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

LAA · NYY · 22 days
Los Angeles AngelsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 6−4
Apr 15at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Apr 14at NYYLAA 7 − 1
Apr 13at NYYNYY 11 − 10
Jun 19, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at NYYLAA 3 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at NYYLAA 4 − 0
Jun 16, 2025at NYYLAA 1 − 0
May 28, 2025at LAANYY 1 − 0
May 27, 2025at LAANYY 3 − 2
May 26, 2025at LAANYY 5 − 1

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 15at NYY4 − 5L
Apr 14at NYY7 − 1W
Apr 13at NYY10 − 11L
Apr 12at CIN9 − 6W
Apr 11at CIN3 − 7L
Apr 10at CIN10 − 2W
Apr 8vs ATL2 − 8L
Apr 7vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 6vs ATL6 − 2W
Apr 5vs SEA8 − 7W

NYY · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 15vs LAA5 − 4W
Apr 14vs LAA1 − 7L
Apr 13vs LAA11 − 10W
Apr 12at TB4 − 5L
Apr 11at TB4 − 5L
Apr 10at TB3 − 5L
Apr 9vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 8vs ATH2 − 3L
Apr 7vs ATH5 − 3W
Apr 5vs MIA6 − 7L