bayesRatings

Yankees at Rays

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 12:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final NYY 4 – TB 5
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000000202470
TB120000115110
Team box
NYY·TB
7
hits
11
1
home runs
0
2
walks
1
8
strikeouts
9
125
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Aaron JudgeNYY1-3212
Chandler SimpsonTB3-4201
Taylor WallsTB2-3101
Junior CamineroTB2-3001
Cody BellingerNYY1-4001
Ben RiceNYY2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam Schlittler (L)NYY5.07318
Drew Rasmussen (W)TB6.01007
Mason Englert (S)TB1.03211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 3 · NYY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 53%, TB 47% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 5.0 – 4.0 TB
Expected total
8.9
YankeesThe matchupRays
−113Our fair odds+113
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.21Power rating−0.01
4.4Runs / game4.6
2.8Allowed / game5.4
6.6Hits / game8.9
0.93Home runs / game0.86
4.9Walks drawn / game3.2
8−6Season record7−7
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TB chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshi57.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11353%−13757.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays+11347%+11945.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 17%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTB wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 22 Kstarted
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TB
Apr 11 at TB
last game
Apr 11 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
NYY·TB
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.4
runs / game
4.6
2.8
runs allowed / game
5.4
8−6
season record
7−7
3−3
home record
3−2
5−3
away record
4−5
L4
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
6.6
hits / game
8.9
0.93
home runs / game
0.86
4.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.64
errors / game
1.21

Rating Trend

NYY · TB · 18 days
New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Apr 11at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 10at TBTB 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at TBNYY 6 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at TBNYY 13 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 4
Jul 30, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Jul 29, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at NYYTB 4 − 2
May 4, 2025at NYYTB 7 − 5
May 3, 2025at NYYTB 3 − 2

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Apr 11at TB4 − 5L
Apr 10at TB3 − 5L
Apr 9vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 8vs ATH2 − 3L
Apr 7vs ATH5 − 3W
Apr 5vs MIA6 − 7L
Apr 4vs MIA9 − 7W
Apr 3vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 1at SEA5 − 3W
Mar 31at SEA5 − 0W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 11vs NYY5 − 4W
Apr 10vs NYY5 − 3W
Apr 8vs CHC2 − 6L
Apr 7vs CHC2 − 9L
Apr 6vs CHC6 − 4W
Apr 5at MIN4 − 1W
Apr 4at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 3at MIN4 − 10L
Apr 1at MIL2 − 8L
Mar 31at MIL2 − 6L