bayesRatings

Yankees at Rays

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 6:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final NYY 3 – TB 5
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY200000010351
TB21000200591
Team box
NYY·TB
5
hits
9
1
home runs
1
2
walks
5
12
strikeouts
5
160
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB2-4112
Ben RiceNYY1-1111
Amed RosarioNYY2-4001
Chandler SimpsonTB1-5002
Nick FortesTB2-4000
Giancarlo StantonNYY1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Gil (L)NYY4.03332
Steven Matz (W)TB5.02227
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.02001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 3 · NYY 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, TB 46% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 5.0 – 4.0 TB
Expected total
9.0
YankeesThe matchupRays
−119Our fair odds+119
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.24Power rating−0.03
4.5Runs / game4.6
2.4Allowed / game5.8
6.6Hits / game8.8
0.92Home runs / game0.92
5.0Walks drawn / game3.2
8−4Season record5−7
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TB chance
Our model fair54.3%45.7%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11954%−11653.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays+11946%−10751.8%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTB wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more35%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYLuis Gil SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 7 Kstarted
TBSteven Matz RP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TB
Apr 9 vs ATH
last game
Apr 8 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
NYY·TB
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.5
runs / game
4.6
2.4
runs allowed / game
5.8
8−4
season record
5−7
3−3
home record
1−2
5−1
away record
4−5
L2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
6.6
hits / game
8.8
0.92
home runs / game
0.92
5.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.58
errors / game
1.33

Rating Trend

NYY · TB · 16 days
New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 3−7
Aug 20, 2025at TBNYY 6 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at TBNYY 13 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 4
Jul 30, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Jul 29, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at NYYTB 4 − 2
May 4, 2025at NYYTB 7 − 5
May 3, 2025at NYYTB 3 − 2
May 2, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 0
Apr 20, 2025at TBNYY 4 − 0

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 9vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 8vs ATH2 − 3L
Apr 7vs ATH5 − 3W
Apr 5vs MIA6 − 7L
Apr 4vs MIA9 − 7W
Apr 3vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 1at SEA5 − 3W
Mar 31at SEA5 − 0W
Mar 30at SEA1 − 2L
Mar 28at SF3 − 1W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 8vs CHC2 − 6L
Apr 7vs CHC2 − 9L
Apr 6vs CHC6 − 4W
Apr 5at MIN4 − 1W
Apr 4at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 3at MIN4 − 10L
Apr 1at MIL2 − 8L
Mar 31at MIL2 − 6L
Mar 30at MIL3 − 2W
Mar 29at STL11 − 7W