bayesRatings

Cubs at Rays

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final CHC 9 – TB 2
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC0220011129160
TB000000020261
Team box
CHC·TB
16
hits
6
2
home runs
0
3
walks
3
5
strikeouts
5
139
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Moises BallesterosCHC2-4213
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC3-5311
Nico HoernerCHC2-4002
Michael ConfortoCHC2-3101
Alex BregmanCHC3-5100
Matt ShawCHC2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Javier Assad (W)CHC5.21023
Mason Englert (L)TB3.27312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +7
CHC +7
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · CHC 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 51%, TB 49% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
CHC by 0.5
Expected score
CHC 4.5 – 4.0 TB
Expected total
8.4
CubsThe matchupRays
−103Our fair odds+103
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.12Power rating−0.00
4.1Runs / game5.1
4.0Allowed / game5.4
6.3Hits / game9.5
1.00Home runs / game1.10
4.4Walks drawn / game3.4
4−6Season record5−5
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · TB chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10351%−10751.8%———
TBTampa Bay Rays+10349%−11653.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.5
CHCChicago Cubs−0.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.5 expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 18%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byTB wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more40%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more30%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCJavier Assad RP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TBMason Englert RP · last 2 starts: 4.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·TB
Apr 6 at TB
last game
Apr 6 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
CHC·TB
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.1
runs / game
5.1
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.4
4−6
season record
5−5
3−3
home record
1−0
1−3
away record
4−5
L2
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
5−5
6.3
hits / game
9.5
1.00
home runs / game
1.10
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.40
errors / game
1.20

Rating Trend

CHC · TB · 13 days
Chicago CubsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Apr 6at TBTB 6 − 4
Sep 14, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at CHCTB 5 − 4
Sep 12, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 4
Jun 13, 2024at TBTB 3 − 2
Jun 12, 2024at TBCHC 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2024at TBTB 5 − 2
May 31, 2023at CHCTB 4 − 3
May 30, 2023at CHCCHC 2 − 1
May 29, 2023at CHCCHC 1 − 0

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 6at TB4 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE5 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 3at CLE1 − 4L
Apr 1vs LAA6 − 2W
Mar 31vs LAA0 − 2L
Mar 30vs LAA7 − 2W
Mar 29vs WSH3 − 6L
Mar 28vs WSH10 − 2W
Mar 26vs WSH4 − 10L

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 6vs CHC6 − 4W
Apr 5at MIN4 − 1W
Apr 4at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 3at MIN4 − 10L
Apr 1at MIL2 − 8L
Mar 31at MIL2 − 6L
Mar 30at MIL3 − 2W
Mar 29at STL11 − 7W
Mar 28at STL5 − 6L
Mar 26at STL7 − 9L