bayesRatings

Cubs at Rays

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 3:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final CHC 4 – TB 6
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC020001001441
TB03100020690
Team box
CHC·TB
4
hits
9
1
home runs
3
4
walks
1
9
strikeouts
5
112
pitches thrown
138
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cedric MullinsTB1-3112
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4112
Matt ShawCHC1-4111
Junior CamineroTB1-4111
Nico HoernerCHC1-4002
Yandy DiazTB2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jameson Taillon (L)CHC6.07304
Shane McClanahanTB4.01245
Kevin Kelly (W)TB1.00001
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.01102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
CHC +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 3 · CHC 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 51%, TB 49% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
CHC by 0.5
Expected score
CHC 4.5 – 4.0 TB
Expected total
8.4
CubsThe matchupRays
−105Our fair odds+105
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.13Power rating−0.01
4.1Runs / game5.0
3.8Allowed / game5.6
6.6Hits / game9.6
1.00Home runs / game0.89
4.4Walks drawn / game3.7
4−5Season record4−5
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · TB chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10551%+10548.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays+10549%−13156.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.5
CHCChicago Cubs−0.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.5 expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 18%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byTB wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more40%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more30%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCJameson Taillon SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 1.42 ERA, 10 Kstarted
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·TB
Apr 5 at CLE
last game
Apr 5 at MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
CHC·TB
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.1
runs / game
5.0
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.6
4−5
season record
4−5
3−3
home record
0−0
1−2
away record
4−5
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
6.6
hits / game
9.6
1.00
home runs / game
0.89
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.33
errors / game
1.33

Rating Trend

CHC · TB · 12 days
Chicago CubsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Sep 14, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at CHCTB 5 − 4
Sep 12, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 4
Jun 13, 2024at TBTB 3 − 2
Jun 12, 2024at TBCHC 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2024at TBTB 5 − 2
May 31, 2023at CHCTB 4 − 3
May 30, 2023at CHCCHC 2 − 1
May 29, 2023at CHCCHC 1 − 0
Apr 20, 2022at CHCTB 8 − 2

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 5at CLE5 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 3at CLE1 − 4L
Apr 1vs LAA6 − 2W
Mar 31vs LAA0 − 2L
Mar 30vs LAA7 − 2W
Mar 29vs WSH3 − 6L
Mar 28vs WSH10 − 2W
Mar 26vs WSH4 − 10L
Oct 11, 2025at MIL1 − 3L

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 5at MIN4 − 1W
Apr 4at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 3at MIN4 − 10L
Apr 1at MIL2 − 8L
Mar 31at MIL2 − 6L
Mar 30at MIL3 − 2W
Mar 29at STL11 − 7W
Mar 28at STL5 − 6L
Mar 26at STL7 − 9L
Sep 28, 2025at TOR4 − 13L