bayesRatings

Athletics at Yankees

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final ATH 3 – NYY 5
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH003000000361
NYY01000004591
Team box
ATH·NYY
6
hits
9
0
home runs
2
4
walks
4
13
strikeouts
7
148
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Amed RosarioNYY2-4224
Tyler SoderstromATH2-4001
Nick KurtzATH1-5102
Jeff McNeilATH2-3100
Giancarlo StantonNYY1-4001
Jose CaballeroNYY2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron CivaleATH5.02146
Mark Leiter Jr. (L)ATH0.25400
Cam SchlittlerNYY5.05307
Fernando Cruz (W)NYY1.10021
David Bednar (S)NYY1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 2 · ATH 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 39%, NYY 61% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
NYY by 1.4
Expected score
NYY 5.5 – 4.1 ATH
Expected total
9.7
AthleticsThe matchupYankees
+155Our fair odds−155
4.1Expected runs5.5
−0.09Power rating+0.27
4.4Runs / game5.2
5.8Allowed / game2.4
7.7Hits / game7.2
1.11Home runs / game1.00
3.4Walks drawn / game5.1
3−6Season record7−2
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · NYY chance
Our model fair39.2%60.8%
Kalshi32.5%71.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+15539%+20832.5%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15561%−25171.5%———
SpreadNYY by 1.4
ATHAthletics+1.4our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.4 expected
Athletics by 16 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more48%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more38%
Athletics wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 12 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·NYY
Apr 5 vs HOU
last game
Apr 5 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
ATH·NYY
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.4
runs / game
5.2
5.8
runs allowed / game
2.4
3−6
season record
7−2
2−1
home record
2−1
1−5
away record
5−1
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
7.2
1.11
home runs / game
1.00
3.4
walks drawn / game
5.1
11.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.11
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

ATH · NYY · 13 days
AthleticsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 7−3
Jun 29, 2025at NYYNYY 12 − 5
Jun 28, 2025at NYYATH 7 − 0
Jun 27, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 0
May 11, 2025at ATHNYY 12 − 2
May 10, 2025at ATHATH 11 − 7
May 9, 2025at ATHNYY 10 − 2
Sep 22, 2024at ATHNYY 7 − 4
Sep 21, 2024at ATHNYY 10 − 0
Sep 20, 2024at ATHNYY 4 − 2
Apr 25, 2024at NYYATH 3 − 1

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 5vs HOU12 − 10W
Apr 4vs HOU0 − 11L
Apr 3vs HOU11 − 4W
Apr 1at ATL1 − 5L
Mar 31at ATL5 − 2W
Mar 30at ATL0 − 4L
Mar 29at TOR2 − 5L
Mar 28at TOR7 − 8L
Mar 27at TOR2 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs KC2 − 9L

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 5vs MIA6 − 7L
Apr 4vs MIA9 − 7W
Apr 3vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 1at SEA5 − 3W
Mar 31at SEA5 − 0W
Mar 30at SEA1 − 2L
Mar 28at SF3 − 1W
Mar 27at SF3 − 0W
Mar 25at SF7 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L