bayesRatings

Astros at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final HOU 11 – ATH 0
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU20230301011180
ATH000000000050
Team box
HOU·ATH
18
hits
5
2
home runs
0
13
walks
3
5
strikeouts
13
143
pitches thrown
200
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Christian WalkerHOU3-5312
Christian VazquezHOU3-6002
Joey LoperfidoHOU3-4202
Yainer DiazHOU3-5102
Cam SmithHOU1-1111
Max MuncyATH2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tatsuya Imai (W)HOU5.23039
Luis Morales (L)ATH3.08560

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +11
HOU +11
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · HOU 11lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 51%, ATH 49% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
HOU by 0.6
Expected score
HOU 4.9 – 4.3 ATH
Expected total
9.2
AstrosThe matchupAthletics
−105Our fair odds+105
4.9Expected runs4.3
+0.07Power rating−0.08
6.1Runs / game4.0
5.4Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game6.9
1.12Home runs / game1.14
4.6Walks drawn / game2.7
5−3Season record2−5
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · ATH chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−10551%−10751.8%———
ATHAthletics+10549%−11653.7%———
SpreadHOU by 0.6
HOUHouston Astros−0.6our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.6 expected
Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 17%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byATH wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more42%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUTatsuya Imai SP · last 1 start: 2.2 IP, 13.50 ERA, 4 Kstarted
ATHLuis Morales SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·ATH
Apr 3 at ATH
last game
Apr 3 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
HOU·ATH
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
6.1
runs / game
4.0
5.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
5−3
season record
2−5
5−2
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−5
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
6.9
1.12
home runs / game
1.14
4.6
walks drawn / game
2.7
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
11.4
11.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.7
0.00
errors / game
0.14

Rating Trend

HOU · ATH · 10 days
Houston AstrosAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 8−2
Apr 3at ATHATH 11 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at ATHHOU 11 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0
Sep 23, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at HOUATH 7 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at HOUATH 5 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at HOUATH 15 − 3
Jul 24, 2025at HOUATH 5 − 2
Jun 19, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 4
Jun 18, 2025at ATHHOU 11 − 4

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 3at ATH4 − 11L
Apr 1vs BOS6 − 4W
Mar 31vs BOS9 − 2W
Mar 30vs BOS8 − 1W
Mar 29vs LAA9 − 7W
Mar 28vs LAA11 − 9W
Mar 27vs LAA2 − 6L
Mar 26vs LAA0 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025at LAA6 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at LAA6 − 1W

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 3vs HOU11 − 4W
Apr 1at ATL1 − 5L
Mar 31at ATL5 − 2W
Mar 30at ATL0 − 4L
Mar 29at TOR2 − 5L
Mar 28at TOR7 − 8L
Mar 27at TOR2 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs KC2 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025vs KC2 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025vs KC4 − 3W