bayesRatings

Astros at Athletics

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final HOU 4 – ATH 11
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU001000102460
ATH0136100011130
Team box
HOU·ATH
6
hits
13
0
home runs
2
5
walks
7
10
strikeouts
6
159
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Lawrence ButlerATH3-5214
Max MuncyATH3-4213
Tyler SoderstromATH2-4202
Jacob WilsonATH2-4101
Yainer DiazHOU2-3101
Denzel ClarkeATH1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cristian Javier (L)HOU3.26652
Jeffrey Springs (W)ATH6.02117

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +10
HOU +10
123456789
largest lead: ATH 10 · HOU 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 52%, ATH 48% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
HOU by 0.7
Expected score
HOU 4.9 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
9.1
AstrosThe matchupAthletics
−109Our fair odds+109
4.9Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating−0.09
6.4Runs / game2.8
4.6Allowed / game4.5
9.0Hits / game5.8
1.29Home runs / game1.00
4.6Walks drawn / game2.0
5−2Season record1−5
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · ATH chance
Our model fair52.1%47.9%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−10952%−11252.7%———
ATHAthletics+10948%−11252.7%———
SpreadHOU by 0.7
HOUHouston Astros−0.7our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.7 expected
Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 17%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byATH wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more43%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUCristian Javier SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA, 9 Kstarted
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·ATH
Apr 1 vs BOS
last game
Apr 1 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
HOU·ATH
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
6.4
runs / game
2.8
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
5−2
season record
1−5
5−2
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−5
W5
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
2−8
9.0
hits / game
5.8
1.29
home runs / game
1.00
4.6
walks drawn / game
2.0
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
12.3
12.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.2
0.00
errors / game
0.17

Rating Trend

HOU · ATH · 9 days
Houston AstrosAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 7−3
Sep 25, 2025at ATHHOU 11 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0
Sep 23, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at HOUATH 7 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at HOUATH 5 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at HOUATH 15 − 3
Jul 24, 2025at HOUATH 5 − 2
Jun 19, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 4
Jun 18, 2025at ATHHOU 11 − 4
Jun 17, 2025at ATHHOU 13 − 3

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Apr 1vs BOS6 − 4W
Mar 31vs BOS9 − 2W
Mar 30vs BOS8 − 1W
Mar 29vs LAA9 − 7W
Mar 28vs LAA11 − 9W
Mar 27vs LAA2 − 6L
Mar 26vs LAA0 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025at LAA6 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at LAA6 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at LAA3 − 4L

ATH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Apr 1at ATL1 − 5L
Mar 31at ATL5 − 2W
Mar 30at ATL0 − 4L
Mar 29at TOR2 − 5L
Mar 28at TOR7 − 8L
Mar 27at TOR2 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs KC2 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025vs KC2 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025vs KC4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs HOU5 − 11L