bayesRatings

Cubs at Rays

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final CHC 6 – TB 2
← MLB / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC100050000680
TB001000010253
Team box
CHC·TB
8
hits
5
1
home runs
0
4
walks
2
7
strikeouts
7
136
pitches thrown
145
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nico HoernerCHC3-5212
Michael ConfortoCHC1-4102
Jonathan ArandaTB2-3101
Carson KellyCHC2-4100
Jake FraleyTB1-3001
Matt ShawCHC1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Colin Rea (W)CHC5.02122
Joe Boyle (L)TB4.14533

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +5
CHC +5
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · CHC 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 51%, TB 49% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
CHC by 0.6
Expected score
CHC 4.5 – 4.0 TB
Expected total
8.5
CubsThe matchupRays
−106Our fair odds+106
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.13Power rating−0.02
4.5Runs / game4.8
3.8Allowed / game5.7
7.2Hits / game9.2
1.09Home runs / game1.00
4.3Walks drawn / game3.4
5−6Season record5−6
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · TB chance
Our model fair51.5%48.5%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10651%−10751.8%———
TBTampa Bay Rays+10649%−11252.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.6
CHCChicago Cubs−0.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.6 expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 18%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byTB wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more41%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more31%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 23 Kstarted
TBJoe Boyle SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·TB
Apr 7 at TB
last game
Apr 7 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
CHC·TB
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.5
runs / game
4.8
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.7
5−6
season record
5−6
3−3
home record
1−1
2−3
away record
4−5
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.2
hits / game
9.2
1.09
home runs / game
1.00
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.36
errors / game
1.18

Rating Trend

CHC · TB · 14 days
Chicago CubsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Apr 7at TBCHC 9 − 2
Apr 6at TBTB 6 − 4
Sep 14, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at CHCTB 5 − 4
Sep 12, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 4
Jun 13, 2024at TBTB 3 − 2
Jun 12, 2024at TBCHC 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2024at TBTB 5 − 2
May 31, 2023at CHCTB 4 − 3
May 30, 2023at CHCCHC 2 − 1

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 7at TB9 − 2W
Apr 6at TB4 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE5 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 3at CLE1 − 4L
Apr 1vs LAA6 − 2W
Mar 31vs LAA0 − 2L
Mar 30vs LAA7 − 2W
Mar 29vs WSH3 − 6L
Mar 28vs WSH10 − 2W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 7vs CHC2 − 9L
Apr 6vs CHC6 − 4W
Apr 5at MIN4 − 1W
Apr 4at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 3at MIN4 − 10L
Apr 1at MIL2 − 8L
Mar 31at MIL2 − 6L
Mar 30at MIL3 − 2W
Mar 29at STL11 − 7W
Mar 28at STL5 − 6L