bayesRatings

Yankees at Rays

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 5:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final NYY 4 – TB 5
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
NYY0100000201481
TB0100010102590
Team box
NYY·TB
8
hits
9
1
home runs
0
7
walks
1
9
strikeouts
8
120
pitches thrown
164
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose CaballeroNYY2-5003
Austin WellsNYY1-5111
Taylor WallsTB2-3101
Jonny DeLucaTB2-4001
Cody BellingerNYY2-5000
Yandy DiazTB1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max FriedNYY8.06306
David Bednar (L)NYY0.12111
Nick MartinezTB4.25134
Cole Sulser (W)TB1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
NYY +3
12345678910
largest lead: TB 1 · NYY 1lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, TB 46% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 5.0 – 4.0 TB
Expected total
9.0
YankeesThe matchupRays
−115Our fair odds+115
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.22Power rating−0.02
4.4Runs / game4.6
2.6Allowed / game5.5
6.5Hits / game8.8
0.92Home runs / game0.92
4.8Walks drawn / game3.4
8−5Season record6−7
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TB chance
Our model fair53.6%46.4%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11554%−17563.6%———
TBTampa Bay Rays+11546%+14640.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTB wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more35%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TB
Apr 10 at TB
last game
Apr 10 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
NYY·TB
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.4
runs / game
4.6
2.6
runs allowed / game
5.5
8−5
season record
6−7
3−3
home record
2−2
5−2
away record
4−5
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
6.5
hits / game
8.8
0.92
home runs / game
0.92
4.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
10.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.0
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.62
errors / game
1.31

Rating Trend

NYY · TB · 17 days
New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Apr 10at TBTB 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at TBNYY 6 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at TBNYY 13 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 4
Jul 30, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Jul 29, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at NYYTB 4 − 2
May 4, 2025at NYYTB 7 − 5
May 3, 2025at NYYTB 3 − 2
May 2, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 0

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Apr 10at TB3 − 5L
Apr 9vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 8vs ATH2 − 3L
Apr 7vs ATH5 − 3W
Apr 5vs MIA6 − 7L
Apr 4vs MIA9 − 7W
Apr 3vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 1at SEA5 − 3W
Mar 31at SEA5 − 0W
Mar 30at SEA1 − 2L

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 10vs NYY5 − 3W
Apr 8vs CHC2 − 6L
Apr 7vs CHC2 − 9L
Apr 6vs CHC6 − 4W
Apr 5at MIN4 − 1W
Apr 4at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 3at MIN4 − 10L
Apr 1at MIL2 − 8L
Mar 31at MIL2 − 6L
Mar 30at MIL3 − 2W