bayesRatings

Angels at Yankees

MLB · Monday, Apr 13 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final LAA 10 – NYY 11
← MLB / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA00040312010121
NYY22003100311141
Team box
LAA·NYY
12
hits
14
2
home runs
5
3
walks
7
8
strikeouts
7
201
pitches thrown
189
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mike TroutLAA2-5325
Trent GrishamNYY2-3225
Aaron JudgeNYY2-5223
Jose CaballeroNYY2-5212
Jorge SolerLAA2-5101
Jo AdellLAA2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yusei KikuchiLAA3.14443
Jordan Romano (L)LAA0.03320
Will WarrenNYY3.23016
Paul Blackburn (W)NYY1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +4
LAA +4
123456789
largest lead: NYY 4 · LAA 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 39%, NYY 61% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
NYY by 1.6
Expected score
NYY 5.5 – 3.9 LAA
Expected total
9.4
AngelsThe matchupYankees
+154Our fair odds−154
3.9Expected runs5.5
−0.15Power rating+0.19
4.6Runs / game4.3
4.8Allowed / game2.9
6.8Hits / game6.6
1.19Home runs / game0.93
4.8Walks drawn / game4.7
8−8Season record8−7
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · NYY chance
Our model fair39.4%60.6%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+15439%+15239.6%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15461%−18364.6%———
SpreadNYY by 1.6
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.6our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.6 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more50%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more40%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAYusei Kikuchi SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 16 Kstarted
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·NYY
Apr 12 at CIN
last game
Apr 12 at TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
LAA·NYY
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
4.6
runs / game
4.3
4.8
runs allowed / game
2.9
8−8
season record
8−7
3−3
home record
3−3
5−5
away record
5−4
W1
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
4−6
6.8
hits / game
6.6
1.19
home runs / game
0.93
4.8
walks drawn / game
4.7
9.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.81
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

LAA · NYY · 19 days
Los Angeles AngelsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Jun 19, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at NYYLAA 3 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at NYYLAA 4 − 0
Jun 16, 2025at NYYLAA 1 − 0
May 28, 2025at LAANYY 1 − 0
May 27, 2025at LAANYY 3 − 2
May 26, 2025at LAANYY 5 − 1
Aug 8, 2024at NYYLAA 9 − 4
Aug 7, 2024at NYYLAA 8 − 2
Aug 7, 2024at NYYNYY 5 − 2

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 12at CIN9 − 6W
Apr 11at CIN3 − 7L
Apr 10at CIN10 − 2W
Apr 8vs ATL2 − 8L
Apr 7vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 6vs ATL6 − 2W
Apr 5vs SEA8 − 7W
Apr 4vs SEA1 − 0W
Apr 3vs SEA1 − 3L
Apr 1at CHC2 − 6L

NYY · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Apr 12at TB4 − 5L
Apr 11at TB4 − 5L
Apr 10at TB3 − 5L
Apr 9vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 8vs ATH2 − 3L
Apr 7vs ATH5 − 3W
Apr 5vs MIA6 − 7L
Apr 4vs MIA9 − 7W
Apr 3vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 1at SEA5 − 3W