bayesRatings

Angels at Reds

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 12:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final LAA 9 – CIN 6
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA3202001109102
CIN000000033663
Team box
LAA·CIN
10
hits
6
1
home runs
1
9
walks
6
3
strikeouts
12
165
pitches thrown
178
2
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Elly De La CruzCIN2-5213
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-3103
Oswald PerazaLAA1-5112
Mike TroutLAA2-4301
Jo AdellLAA2-5101
Logan O'HoppeLAA2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose Soriano (W)LAA7.020310
Andrew Abbott (L)CIN3.08721

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +9
LAA +9
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · LAA 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 42%, CIN 58% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
CIN by 0.9
Expected score
CIN 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
8.4
AngelsThe matchupReds
+135Our fair odds−135
3.8Expected runs4.7
−0.18Power rating+0.03
4.3Runs / game3.2
4.7Allowed / game4.1
6.6Hits / game6.9
1.20Home runs / game0.93
4.5Walks drawn / game4.2
7−8Season record9−6
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · CIN chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13542%−11252.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−13558%−10751.8%———
SpreadCIN by 0.9
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more43%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more32%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.45 ERA, 21 Kstarted
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·CIN
Apr 11 at CIN
last game
Apr 11 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
LAA·CIN
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.3
runs / game
3.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.1
7−8
season record
9−6
3−3
home record
4−4
4−5
away record
5−2
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
6.6
hits / game
6.9
1.20
home runs / game
0.93
4.5
walks drawn / game
4.2
10.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.73
errors / game
0.27

Rating Trend

LAA · CIN · 18 days
Los Angeles AngelsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 8−2
Apr 11at CINCIN 7 − 3
Apr 10at CINLAA 10 − 2
Aug 20, 2025at LAALAA 2 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at LAACIN 6 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at LAACIN 4 − 1
Apr 21, 2024at CINCIN 3 − 0
Apr 20, 2024at CINCIN 7 − 5
Apr 19, 2024at CINCIN 7 − 1
Aug 23, 2023at LAACIN 7 − 3
Aug 23, 2023at LAACIN 9 − 4

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 11at CIN3 − 7L
Apr 10at CIN10 − 2W
Apr 8vs ATL2 − 8L
Apr 7vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 6vs ATL6 − 2W
Apr 5vs SEA8 − 7W
Apr 4vs SEA1 − 0W
Apr 3vs SEA1 − 3L
Apr 1at CHC2 − 6L
Mar 31at CHC2 − 0W

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 11vs LAA7 − 3W
Apr 10vs LAA2 − 10L
Apr 9at MIA1 − 8L
Apr 8at MIA4 − 7L
Apr 7at MIA6 − 3W
Apr 6at MIA2 − 0W
Apr 5at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 4at TEX2 − 0W
Apr 3at TEX5 − 3W
Apr 1vs PIT3 − 8L