bayesRatings

Angels at Reds

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 5:45 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final LAA 10 – CIN 2
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA01120105010100
CIN000010010240
Team box
LAA·CIN
10
hits
4
3
home runs
1
8
walks
5
7
strikeouts
4
132
pitches thrown
171
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jorge SolerLAA2-5214
Zach NetoLAA2-5212
Josh LoweLAA2-5111
Elly De La CruzCIN1-3111
Yoan MoncadaLAA2-2101
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Kochanowicz (W)LAA7.02142
Chase Burns (L)CIN5.17542

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +9
LAA +9
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · LAA 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 42%, CIN 58% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
CIN by 1.1
Expected score
CIN 4.7 – 3.6 LAA
Expected total
8.3
AngelsThe matchupReds
+139Our fair odds−139
3.6Expected runs4.7
−0.21Power rating+0.03
3.9Runs / game3.0
4.8Allowed / game3.7
6.5Hits / game7.0
1.15Home runs / game0.92
3.9Walks drawn / game3.8
6−7Season record8−5
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · CIN chance
Our model fair41.8%58.2%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13942%+14640.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−13958%−17563.6%———
SpreadCIN by 1.1
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 1.1 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more45%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJack Kochanowicz SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 10.38 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·CIN
Apr 8 vs ATL
last game
Apr 9 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
LAA·CIN
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
3.9
runs / game
3.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.7
6−7
season record
8−5
3−3
home record
3−3
3−4
away record
5−2
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
6−4
6.5
hits / game
7.0
1.15
home runs / game
0.92
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.8
10.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.77
errors / game
0.31

Rating Trend

LAA · CIN · 16 days
Los Angeles AngelsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CIN 8−1
Aug 20, 2025at LAALAA 2 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at LAACIN 6 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at LAACIN 4 − 1
Apr 21, 2024at CINCIN 3 − 0
Apr 20, 2024at CINCIN 7 − 5
Apr 19, 2024at CINCIN 7 − 1
Aug 23, 2023at LAACIN 7 − 3
Aug 23, 2023at LAACIN 9 − 4
Aug 22, 2023at LAACIN 4 − 3

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 8vs ATL2 − 8L
Apr 7vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 6vs ATL6 − 2W
Apr 5vs SEA8 − 7W
Apr 4vs SEA1 − 0W
Apr 3vs SEA1 − 3L
Apr 1at CHC2 − 6L
Mar 31at CHC2 − 0W
Mar 30at CHC2 − 7L
Mar 29at HOU7 − 9L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 9at MIA1 − 8L
Apr 8at MIA4 − 7L
Apr 7at MIA6 − 3W
Apr 6at MIA2 − 0W
Apr 5at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 4at TEX2 − 0W
Apr 3at TEX5 − 3W
Apr 1vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 31vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 30vs PIT2 − 0W