bayesRatings

Angels at Reds

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 3:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final LAA 3 – CIN 7
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA001200000351
CIN41000002780
Team box
LAA·CIN
5
hits
8
0
home runs
1
9
walks
9
7
strikeouts
6
179
pitches thrown
168
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-4003
Spencer SteerCIN1-3211
Elly De La CruzCIN3-4100
Mike TroutLAA1-3002
Zach NetoLAA2-4200
Nolan SchanuelLAA1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
George Klassen (L)LAA2.04452
Brandon WilliamsonCIN4.03363
Pierce Johnson (W)CIN1.11003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
LAA +5
123456789
largest lead: CIN 5 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 43%, CIN 57% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
CIN by 0.8
Expected score
CIN 4.6 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
8.4
AngelsThe matchupReds
+132Our fair odds−132
3.8Expected runs4.6
−0.17Power rating+0.02
4.4Runs / game2.9
4.6Allowed / game4.1
6.7Hits / game6.8
1.29Home runs / game0.93
4.2Walks drawn / game3.9
7−7Season record8−6
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · CIN chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshi47.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13243%+10947.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−13257%−12655.7%———
SpreadCIN by 0.8
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.8our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 0.8 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more42%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more32%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAGeorge Klassen SP · last 1 start: 2.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 4 Kstarted
CINBrandon Williamson SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·CIN
Apr 10 at CIN
last game
Apr 10 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
LAA·CIN
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.4
runs / game
2.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.1
7−7
season record
8−6
3−3
home record
3−4
4−4
away record
5−2
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
5−5
6.7
hits / game
6.8
1.29
home runs / game
0.93
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
10.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.71
errors / game
0.29

Rating Trend

LAA · CIN · 17 days
Los Angeles AngelsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 8−2
Apr 10at CINLAA 10 − 2
Aug 20, 2025at LAALAA 2 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at LAACIN 6 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at LAACIN 4 − 1
Apr 21, 2024at CINCIN 3 − 0
Apr 20, 2024at CINCIN 7 − 5
Apr 19, 2024at CINCIN 7 − 1
Aug 23, 2023at LAACIN 7 − 3
Aug 23, 2023at LAACIN 9 − 4
Aug 22, 2023at LAACIN 4 − 3

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 10at CIN10 − 2W
Apr 8vs ATL2 − 8L
Apr 7vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 6vs ATL6 − 2W
Apr 5vs SEA8 − 7W
Apr 4vs SEA1 − 0W
Apr 3vs SEA1 − 3L
Apr 1at CHC2 − 6L
Mar 31at CHC2 − 0W
Mar 30at CHC2 − 7L

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Apr 10vs LAA2 − 10L
Apr 9at MIA1 − 8L
Apr 8at MIA4 − 7L
Apr 7at MIA6 − 3W
Apr 6at MIA2 − 0W
Apr 5at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 4at TEX2 − 0W
Apr 3at TEX5 − 3W
Apr 1vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 31vs PIT3 − 8L