bayesRatings

Angels at Yankees

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final LAA 7 – NYY 1
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA3001020107120
NYY000000010150
Team box
LAA·NYY
12
hits
5
5
home runs
0
6
walks
0
12
strikeouts
12
144
pitches thrown
180
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yoan MoncadaLAA2-4113
Oswald PerazaLAA3-3111
Jo AdellLAA2-5111
Mike TroutLAA1-5111
Jorge SolerLAA1-3211
Vaughn GrissomLAA2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reid Detmers (W)LAA7.04109
Ryan Weathers (L)NYY5.055210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +7
LAA +7
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · LAA 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 39%, NYY 61% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
NYY by 1.6
Expected score
NYY 5.6 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
9.7
AngelsThe matchupYankees
+157Our fair odds−157
4.0Expected runs5.6
−0.16Power rating+0.20
4.9Runs / game4.8
5.2Allowed / game3.4
7.1Hits / game7.1
1.24Home runs / game1.19
4.7Walks drawn / game4.9
8−9Season record9−7
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · NYY chance
Our model fair38.9%61.1%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+15739%+14640.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15761%−17563.6%———
SpreadNYY by 1.6
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.6our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.6 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more50%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more40%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 17 Kstarted
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·NYY
Apr 13 at NYY
last game
Apr 13 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
LAA·NYY
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
4.9
runs / game
4.8
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.4
8−9
season record
9−7
3−3
home record
4−3
5−6
away record
5−4
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.1
hits / game
7.1
1.24
home runs / game
1.19
4.7
walks drawn / game
4.9
9.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.82
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

LAA · NYY · 20 days
Los Angeles AngelsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Apr 13at NYYNYY 11 − 10
Jun 19, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at NYYLAA 3 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at NYYLAA 4 − 0
Jun 16, 2025at NYYLAA 1 − 0
May 28, 2025at LAANYY 1 − 0
May 27, 2025at LAANYY 3 − 2
May 26, 2025at LAANYY 5 − 1
Aug 8, 2024at NYYLAA 9 − 4
Aug 7, 2024at NYYLAA 8 − 2

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 13at NYY10 − 11L
Apr 12at CIN9 − 6W
Apr 11at CIN3 − 7L
Apr 10at CIN10 − 2W
Apr 8vs ATL2 − 8L
Apr 7vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 6vs ATL6 − 2W
Apr 5vs SEA8 − 7W
Apr 4vs SEA1 − 0W
Apr 3vs SEA1 − 3L

NYY · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 13vs LAA11 − 10W
Apr 12at TB4 − 5L
Apr 11at TB4 − 5L
Apr 10at TB3 − 5L
Apr 9vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 8vs ATH2 − 3L
Apr 7vs ATH5 − 3W
Apr 5vs MIA6 − 7L
Apr 4vs MIA9 − 7W
Apr 3vs MIA8 − 2W