bayesRatings

Royals at Yankees

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final KC 2 – NYY 4
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000001010240
NYY00020002452
Team box
KC·NYY
4
hits
5
1
home runs
2
3
walks
5
10
strikeouts
8
142
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-4112
Ben RiceNYY2-4212
Ryan McMahonNYY1-1112
Lane ThomasKC1-4000
Jac CaglianoneKC1-4000
Aaron JudgeNYY1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael WachaKC6.03236
Alex Lange (L)KC1.02202
Cam SchlittlerNYY6.03026
Camilo Doval (W)NYY1.01101
David Bednar (S)NYY1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 2 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 43%, NYY 57% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
NYY by 0.8
Expected score
NYY 4.7 – 3.9 KC
Expected total
8.6
RoyalsThe matchupYankees
+132Our fair odds−132
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.01Power rating+0.16
3.4Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game4.0
7.2Hits / game6.9
0.79Home runs / game1.21
3.5Walks drawn / game4.6
7−12Season record10−9
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · NYY chance
Our model fair43.2%56.8%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+13243%+14640.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13257%−17563.6%———
SpreadNYY by 0.8
KCKansas City Royals+0.8our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.8 expected
Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← KC wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more32%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 0.43 ERA, 17 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·NYY
Apr 16 at DET
last game
Apr 16 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
KC·NYY
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
3.4
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
7−12
season record
10−9
5−5
home record
5−5
2−7
away record
5−4
L4
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
3−7
7.2
hits / game
6.9
0.79
home runs / game
1.21
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.32
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

KC · NYY · 23 days
Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 9−1
Jun 12, 2025at KCNYY 1 − 0
Jun 11, 2025at KCNYY 6 − 3
Jun 10, 2025at KCNYY 10 − 2
Apr 16, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Apr 15, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 2
Apr 14, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 1
Oct 10, 2024at KCNYY 3 − 1post
Oct 9, 2024at KCNYY 3 − 2post
Oct 7, 2024at NYYKC 4 − 2post
Oct 5, 2024at NYYNYY 6 − 5post

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Apr 16at DET9 − 10L
Apr 15at DET1 − 2L
Apr 14at DET1 − 2L
Apr 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Apr 11vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 10vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 9vs CHW0 − 2L
Apr 8at CLE2 − 10L
Apr 7at CLE1 − 2L
Apr 6at CLE4 − 2W

NYY · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 16vs LAA4 − 11L
Apr 15vs LAA5 − 4W
Apr 14vs LAA1 − 7L
Apr 13vs LAA11 − 10W
Apr 12at TB4 − 5L
Apr 11at TB4 − 5L
Apr 10at TB3 − 5L
Apr 9vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 8vs ATH2 − 3L
Apr 7vs ATH5 − 3W