bayesRatings

Yankees at Red Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final NYY 4 – BOS 0
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY0100020104100
BOS000000000040
Team box
NYY·BOS
10
hits
4
1
home runs
0
4
walks
3
9
strikeouts
4
125
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Giancarlo StantonNYY2-4113
Randal GrichukNYY2-4001
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY2-4000
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4000
Marcelo MayerBOS1-1000
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Gil (W)NYY6.12032
Connelly Early (L)BOS5.15334

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
NYY +4
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · NYY 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 52%, BOS 48% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
NYY by 0.7
Expected score
NYY 4.9 – 4.2 BOS
Expected total
9.2
YankeesThe matchupRed Sox
−106Our fair odds+106
4.9Expected runs4.2
+0.21Power rating+0.06
5.0Runs / game4.0
3.7Allowed / game4.6
7.0Hits / game7.8
1.45Home runs / game0.59
5.0Walks drawn / game3.5
13−9Season record9−13
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · BOS chance
Our model fair51.5%48.5%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−10652%+10548.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+10648%−12655.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.7
NYYNew York Yankees−0.7our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.7 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byBOS wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more32%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYLuis Gil SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 6.94 ERA, 9 Kstarted
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·BOS
Apr 19 vs KC
last game
Apr 20 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
NYY·BOS
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
5.0
runs / game
4.0
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
13−9
season record
9−13
8−5
home record
5−5
5−4
away record
4−8
W3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.0
hits / game
7.8
1.45
home runs / game
0.59
5.0
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.55
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

NYY · BOS · 27 days
New York YankeesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Oct 2, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 0post
Oct 1, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3post
Sep 30, 2025at NYYBOS 3 − 1post
Sep 14, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Sep 13, 2025at BOSNYY 5 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at BOSNYY 4 − 1
Aug 24, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at NYYBOS 12 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at NYYBOS 1 − 0
Aug 21, 2025at NYYBOS 6 − 3

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 19vs KC7 − 0W
Apr 18vs KC13 − 4W
Apr 17vs KC4 − 2W
Apr 16vs LAA4 − 11L
Apr 15vs LAA5 − 4W
Apr 14vs LAA1 − 7L
Apr 13vs LAA11 − 10W
Apr 12at TB4 − 5L
Apr 11at TB4 − 5L
Apr 10at TB3 − 5L

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 20vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 19vs DET2 − 6L
Apr 18vs DET1 − 4L
Apr 17vs DET1 − 0W
Apr 15at MIN9 − 5W
Apr 14at MIN0 − 6L
Apr 13at MIN6 − 13L
Apr 12at STL9 − 3W
Apr 11at STL7 − 1W
Apr 10at STL2 − 3L