bayesRatings

Royals at Yankees

MLB · Sunday, Apr 19 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final KC 0 – NYY 7
← MLB / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000000000060
NYY31003000770
Team box
KC·NYY
6
hits
7
0
home runs
3
2
walks
10
9
strikeouts
9
155
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trent GrishamNYY2-4113
Aaron JudgeNYY1-5112
Ben RiceNYY1-3211
Elias DiazKC2-3000
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-3000
Starling MarteKC1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cole Ragans (L)KC4.14786
Ryan Weathers (W)NYY7.15018

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +7
KC +7
123456789
largest lead: NYY 7 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 42%, NYY 58% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.8 KC
Expected total
8.7
RoyalsThe matchupYankees
+138Our fair odds−138
3.8Expected runs4.8
−0.04Power rating+0.19
3.4Runs / game4.9
4.6Allowed / game3.9
7.0Hits / game7.0
0.81Home runs / game1.38
3.3Walks drawn / game4.7
7−14Season record12−9
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · NYY chance
Our model fair42.1%57.9%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+13842%+12943.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13858%−15460.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
KCKansas City Royals+1our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← KC wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCCole Ragans SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.13 ERA, 11 Kstarted
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·NYY
Apr 18 at NYY
last game
Apr 18 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
KC·NYY
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
3.4
runs / game
4.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.9
7−14
season record
12−9
5−5
home record
7−5
2−9
away record
5−4
L6
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
4−6
7.0
hits / game
7.0
0.81
home runs / game
1.38
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.7
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.33
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

KC · NYY · 25 days
Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 10−0
Apr 18at NYYNYY 13 − 4
Apr 17at NYYNYY 4 − 2
Jun 12, 2025at KCNYY 1 − 0
Jun 11, 2025at KCNYY 6 − 3
Jun 10, 2025at KCNYY 10 − 2
Apr 16, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Apr 15, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 2
Apr 14, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 1
Oct 10, 2024at KCNYY 3 − 1post
Oct 9, 2024at KCNYY 3 − 2post

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Apr 18at NYY4 − 13L
Apr 17at NYY2 − 4L
Apr 16at DET9 − 10L
Apr 15at DET1 − 2L
Apr 14at DET1 − 2L
Apr 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Apr 11vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 10vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 9vs CHW0 − 2L
Apr 8at CLE2 − 10L

NYY · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 18vs KC13 − 4W
Apr 17vs KC4 − 2W
Apr 16vs LAA4 − 11L
Apr 15vs LAA5 − 4W
Apr 14vs LAA1 − 7L
Apr 13vs LAA11 − 10W
Apr 12at TB4 − 5L
Apr 11at TB4 − 5L
Apr 10at TB3 − 5L
Apr 9vs ATH0 − 1L