bayesRatings

Orioles at Royals

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final BAL 8 – KC 6
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL2000060008111
KC1002030006100
Team box
BAL·KC
11
hits
10
2
home runs
3
3
walks
2
8
strikeouts
5
131
pitches thrown
153
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Coby MayoBAL1-4113
Carter JensenKC2-3212
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4212
Kyle IsbelKC1-4112
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-3211
Leody TaverasBAL2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Bassitt (W)BAL5.18523
Anthony Nunez (S)BAL1.00002
Michael Wacha (L)KC5.17625

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +5
BAL +5
123456789
largest lead: KC 1 · BAL 5lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 48%, KC 52% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.2 – 3.8 BAL
Expected total
8.1
OriolesThe matchupRoyals
+109Our fair odds−109
3.8Expected runs4.2
−0.06Power rating−0.05
4.3Runs / game3.4
4.5Allowed / game4.8
7.5Hits / game7.4
1.00Home runs / game0.79
4.2Walks drawn / game3.4
11−13Season record8−16
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · KC chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10948%+10947.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10952%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.4our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more39%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more28%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALChris Bassitt SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4 Kstarted
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·KC
Apr 21 at KC
last game
Apr 21 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
BAL·KC
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.3
runs / game
3.4
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
11−13
season record
8−16
6−6
home record
6−6
5−7
away record
2−10
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
7.5
hits / game
7.4
1.00
home runs / game
0.79
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.54
errors / game
0.29

Rating Trend

BAL · KC · 28 days
Baltimore OriolesKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 7−3
Apr 21at KCKC 6 − 5
Apr 20at KCBAL 7 − 5
May 4, 2025at BALKC 11 − 6
May 3, 2025at BALKC 4 − 0
May 2, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 0
Apr 6, 2025at KCKC 4 − 1
Apr 5, 2025at KCBAL 8 − 1
Apr 4, 2025at KCKC 8 − 2
Oct 2, 2024at BALKC 2 − 1post
Oct 1, 2024at BALKC 1 − 0post

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 21at KC5 − 6L
Apr 20at KC7 − 5W
Apr 19at CLE4 − 8L
Apr 18at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 17at CLE6 − 4W
Apr 16at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 15vs ARI5 − 8L
Apr 14vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 13vs ARI9 − 7W
Apr 12vs SF6 − 2W

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Apr 21vs BAL6 − 5W
Apr 20vs BAL5 − 7L
Apr 19at NYY0 − 7L
Apr 18at NYY4 − 13L
Apr 17at NYY2 − 4L
Apr 16at DET9 − 10L
Apr 15at DET1 − 2L
Apr 14at DET1 − 2L
Apr 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Apr 11vs CHW2 − 0W