bayesRatings

Orioles at Royals

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final BAL 5 – KC 6
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL030000020580
KC0100201116100
Team box
BAL·KC
8
hits
10
2
home runs
1
5
walks
4
4
strikeouts
7
150
pitches thrown
159
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Adley RutschmanBAL2-4112
Coby MayoBAL1-3113
Michael MasseyKC2-3112
Kyle IsbelKC3-4200
Pete AlonsoBAL2-4000
Bobby Witt Jr.KC1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane BazBAL6.18424
Ryan Helsley (L)BAL0.10121
Kris BubicKC6.05333
Lucas Erceg (W)KC1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 1 · BAL 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 48%, KC 52% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.2 – 3.8 BAL
Expected total
8.1
OriolesThe matchupRoyals
+108Our fair odds−108
3.8Expected runs4.2
−0.05Power rating−0.06
4.3Runs / game3.3
4.5Allowed / game4.8
7.5Hits / game7.3
0.96Home runs / game0.78
4.2Walks drawn / game3.4
11−12Season record7−16
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · KC chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10848%+10149.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10852%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.4our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more39%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more28%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 15 Kstarted
KCKris Bubic SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·KC
Apr 20 at KC
last game
Apr 20 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
BAL·KC
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.3
runs / game
3.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
11−12
season record
7−16
6−6
home record
5−6
5−6
away record
2−10
W1
streak
L8
5−5
last 10
2−8
7.5
hits / game
7.3
0.96
home runs / game
0.78
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.57
errors / game
0.30

Rating Trend

BAL · KC · 27 days
Baltimore OriolesKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
Apr 20at KCBAL 7 − 5
May 4, 2025at BALKC 11 − 6
May 3, 2025at BALKC 4 − 0
May 2, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 0
Apr 6, 2025at KCKC 4 − 1
Apr 5, 2025at KCBAL 8 − 1
Apr 4, 2025at KCKC 8 − 2
Oct 2, 2024at BALKC 2 − 1post
Oct 1, 2024at BALKC 1 − 0post
Apr 21, 2024at KCBAL 5 − 0

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 20at KC7 − 5W
Apr 19at CLE4 − 8L
Apr 18at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 17at CLE6 − 4W
Apr 16at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 15vs ARI5 − 8L
Apr 14vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 13vs ARI9 − 7W
Apr 12vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 11vs SF6 − 2W

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Apr 20vs BAL5 − 7L
Apr 19at NYY0 − 7L
Apr 18at NYY4 − 13L
Apr 17at NYY2 − 4L
Apr 16at DET9 − 10L
Apr 15at DET1 − 2L
Apr 14at DET1 − 2L
Apr 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Apr 11vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 10vs CHW2 − 0W