bayesRatings

Orioles at Royals

MLB · Monday, Apr 20 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final BAL 7 – KC 5
← MLB / Apr 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789101112THE
BAL000000001015760
KC0100000000135140
Team box
BAL·KC
6
hits
14
1
home runs
1
8
walks
6
14
strikeouts
13
211
pitches thrown
200
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Leody TaverasBAL1-5114
Nick LoftinKC2-2003
Samuel BasalloBAL2-3102
Jac CaglianoneKC1-4111
Salvador PerezKC3-6100
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle BradishBAL5.110137
Anthony Nunez (W)BAL2.01011
Seth LugoKC7.01047
Alex Lange (L)KC1.03412

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +5
BAL +5
123456789101112
largest lead: KC 1 · BAL 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 47%, KC 53% · Updated Apr 20

Expected margin
KC by 0.5
Expected score
KC 4.2 – 3.8 BAL
Expected total
8.0
OriolesThe matchupRoyals
+111Our fair odds−111
3.8Expected runs4.2
−0.06Power rating−0.05
4.1Runs / game3.2
4.5Allowed / game4.7
7.5Hits / game7.0
0.95Home runs / game0.77
4.0Walks drawn / game3.3
10−12Season record7−15
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · KC chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+11147%−11252.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−11153%−10751.8%———
SpreadKC by 0.5
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.5our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Royals by 0.5 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more40%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more29%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 17 Kstarted
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·KC
Apr 19 at CLE
last game
Apr 19 at NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
BAL·KC
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.1
runs / game
3.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.7
10−12
season record
7−15
6−6
home record
5−5
4−6
away record
2−10
L2
streak
L7
4−6
last 10
2−8
7.5
hits / game
7.0
0.95
home runs / game
0.77
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.59
errors / game
0.32

Rating Trend

BAL · KC · 26 days
Baltimore OriolesKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
May 4, 2025at BALKC 11 − 6
May 3, 2025at BALKC 4 − 0
May 2, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 0
Apr 6, 2025at KCKC 4 − 1
Apr 5, 2025at KCBAL 8 − 1
Apr 4, 2025at KCKC 8 − 2
Oct 2, 2024at BALKC 2 − 1post
Oct 1, 2024at BALKC 1 − 0post
Apr 21, 2024at KCBAL 5 − 0
Apr 20, 2024at KCBAL 9 − 7

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 19at CLE4 − 8L
Apr 18at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 17at CLE6 − 4W
Apr 16at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 15vs ARI5 − 8L
Apr 14vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 13vs ARI9 − 7W
Apr 12vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 11vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 10vs SF3 − 6L

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Apr 19at NYY0 − 7L
Apr 18at NYY4 − 13L
Apr 17at NYY2 − 4L
Apr 16at DET9 − 10L
Apr 15at DET1 − 2L
Apr 14at DET1 − 2L
Apr 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Apr 11vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 10vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 9vs CHW0 − 2L