bayesRatings

Tigers at Reds

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final DET 8 – CIN 9
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET0131000308111
CIN0000214029110
Team box
DET·CIN
11
hits
11
4
home runs
4
6
walks
6
6
strikeouts
13
178
pitches thrown
193
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt McLainCIN2-4224
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-5323
Riley GreeneDET2-5111
Kerry CarpenterDET1-2112
Spencer TorkelsonDET2-3211
Javier BaezDET1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Framber ValdezDET4.14254
Kenley Jansen (L)DET0.22201
Andrew AbbottCIN4.06524
Graham Ashcraft (W)CIN1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
DET +5
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · DET 5lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, CIN 52% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.0 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.0
TigersThe matchupReds
+108Our fair odds−108
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.07Power rating+0.05
4.4Runs / game3.9
3.9Allowed / game4.0
8.1Hits / game6.8
0.85Home runs / game1.08
3.7Walks drawn / game4.2
14−12Season record16−9
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CIN chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10848%−11653.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10852%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit TigersPKour margin————
CINCincinnati RedsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more24%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 10 Kstarted
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 8.31 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CIN
Apr 23 vs MIL
last game
Apr 22 at TB
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
DET·CIN
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.4
runs / game
3.9
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.0
14−12
season record
16−9
10−2
home record
6−6
4−10
away record
10−3
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.1
hits / game
6.8
0.85
home runs / game
1.08
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.54
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

DET · CIN · 30 days
Detroit TigersCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Jun 15, 2025at DETCIN 8 − 4
Jun 14, 2025at DETCIN 11 − 1
Jun 13, 2025at DETDET 11 − 5
Jul 7, 2024at CINDET 5 − 1
Jul 6, 2024at CINDET 5 − 3
Jul 5, 2024at CINDET 5 − 4
Sep 14, 2023at DETDET 8 − 2
Sep 13, 2023at DETCIN 4 − 3
Sep 12, 2023at DETCIN 6 − 5
Sep 5, 2021at CINDET 4 − 1

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 23vs MIL5 − 4W
Apr 22vs MIL5 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIL4 − 12L
Apr 20at BOS6 − 8L
Apr 19at BOS6 − 2W
Apr 18at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 17at BOS0 − 1L
Apr 16vs KC10 − 9W
Apr 15vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 14vs KC2 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 22at TB1 − 6L
Apr 21at TB12 − 6W
Apr 20at TB6 − 1W
Apr 19at MIN7 − 4W
Apr 18at MIN5 − 4W
Apr 17at MIN2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SF0 − 3L
Apr 15vs SF8 − 3W
Apr 14vs SF2 − 1W
Apr 12vs LAA6 − 9L