bayesRatings

Brewers at Tigers

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final MIL 2 – DET 5
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL001000010260
DET00022001590
Team box
MIL·DET
6
hits
9
0
home runs
2
5
walks
3
9
strikeouts
6
147
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-4112
Kerry CarpenterDET1-4111
Colt KeithDET2-3001
Riley GreeneDET2-4100
Kevin McGonigleDET1-3101
Jake BauersMIL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
DL HallMIL2.00022
Chad Patrick (L)MIL4.06412
Casey Mize (W)DET6.03137
Kenley Jansen (S)DET1.01021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 3 · MIL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 53%, DET 47% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
MIL by 0.6
Expected score
MIL 4.6 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.6
BrewersThe matchupTigers
−111Our fair odds+111
4.6Expected runs4.0
+0.24Power rating+0.05
5.4Runs / game4.3
4.1Allowed / game4.0
8.0Hits / game8.1
0.86Home runs / game0.71
5.1Walks drawn / game3.7
13−9Season record12−12
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · DET chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11153%+10947.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers+11147%−13757.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.6
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.6our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.6 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byDET wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more41%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more31%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILDL Hall RP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 9 Kstarted
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·DET
Apr 21 at DET
last game
Apr 21 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
MIL·DET
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
5.4
runs / game
4.3
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
13−9
season record
12−12
7−5
home record
8−2
6−4
away record
4−10
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
8.1
0.86
home runs / game
0.71
5.1
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.41
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

MIL · DET · 28 days
Milwaukee BrewersDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Apr 21at DETMIL 12 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 0
Apr 14, 2025at MILDET 9 − 1
Jun 9, 2024at DETDET 10 − 2
Jun 8, 2024at DETMIL 5 − 4
Jun 7, 2024at DETMIL 10 − 0
Apr 26, 2023at MILMIL 6 − 2
Apr 25, 2023at MILDET 4 − 3
Apr 24, 2023at MILDET 4 − 2

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 21at DET12 − 4W
Apr 19at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 18at MIA5 − 2W
Apr 17at MIA7 − 5W
Apr 16vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 15vs TOR2 − 1W
Apr 14vs TOR7 − 9L
Apr 12vs WSH6 − 8L
Apr 11vs WSH1 − 3L
Apr 10vs WSH3 − 7L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Apr 21vs MIL4 − 12L
Apr 20at BOS6 − 8L
Apr 19at BOS6 − 2W
Apr 18at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 17at BOS0 − 1L
Apr 16vs KC10 − 9W
Apr 15vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 14vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 12vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 11vs MIA6 − 1W