bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Brewers

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final TOR 9 – MIL 7
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
TOR00001101339130
MIL00030010217120
Team box
TOR·MIL
13
hits
12
2
home runs
2
2
walks
7
7
strikeouts
12
196
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL1-4113
Andres GimenezTOR1-4112
Daulton VarshoTOR2-5111
Brice TurangMIL3-6201
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-5102
Gary SanchezMIL1-5211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kevin GausmanTOR5.06335
Louis Varland (W)TOR1.12002
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL5.15205
Grant Anderson (L)MIL1.02210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
TOR +3
12345678910
largest lead: MIL 3 · TOR 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 44%, MIL 56% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
MIL by 0.6
Expected score
MIL 4.8 – 4.2 TOR
Expected total
9.1
Blue JaysThe matchupBrewers
+126Our fair odds−126
4.2Expected runs4.8
+0.06Power rating+0.20
3.8Runs / game5.3
5.5Allowed / game4.3
8.3Hits / game7.8
0.93Home runs / game1.07
3.5Walks drawn / game5.0
6−9Season record8−7
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MIL chance
Our model fair44.2%55.8%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+12644%+10149.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−12656%−12154.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.6
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.6our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.6 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more41%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more31%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 26 Kstarted
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 28 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MIL
Apr 12 vs MIN
last game
Apr 12 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
TOR·MIL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
3.8
runs / game
5.3
5.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
6−9
season record
8−7
6−6
home record
5−4
0−3
away record
3−3
L2
streak
L5
2−8
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.8
0.93
home runs / game
1.07
3.5
walks drawn / game
5.0
6.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
11.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.73
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

TOR · MIL · 20 days
Toronto Blue JaysMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Aug 31, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at TORMIL 4 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at TORMIL 7 − 2
Jun 12, 2024at MILMIL 5 − 4
Jun 11, 2024at MILTOR 3 − 0
Jun 10, 2024at MILMIL 3 − 1
Jun 1, 2023at TORTOR 3 − 1
May 31, 2023at TORMIL 4 − 2
May 30, 2023at TORTOR 7 − 2
Jun 26, 2022at MILMIL 10 − 3

TOR · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Apr 12vs MIN2 − 8L
Apr 11vs MIN4 − 7L
Apr 10vs MIN10 − 4W
Apr 8vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 7vs LAD1 − 4L
Apr 6vs LAD2 − 14L
Apr 5at CHW0 − 3L
Apr 4at CHW3 − 6L
Apr 3at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 1vs COL1 − 2L

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Apr 12vs WSH6 − 8L
Apr 11vs WSH1 − 3L
Apr 10vs WSH3 − 7L
Apr 8at BOS0 − 5L
Apr 7at BOS2 − 3L
Apr 6at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 5at KC8 − 5W
Apr 4at KC2 − 8L
Apr 4at KC5 − 2W
Apr 1vs TB8 − 2W